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Week 3 Dynasty Risers and Fallers

darrell henderson week 3 dynasty risers and fallers

Welcome back to my Dynasty Risers and Fallers article for Week 3! You can think of this article as an additional dynasty trade target resource, or players you should be buying on their way up or selling on their way down. Let me know what you think by reaching out to me on Twitter after you check this out!


 Risers

Joe Burrow, QB CIN

Here is a fun stat: Joe Burrow is on pace to be sacked 75 times (8 times week 3) yet is still the QB10 on the season. Through 3 games Burrow has 821 passing yards, 5 passing TD’s, 1 interception, 64 rushing yards, and a rushing TD. Those are crazy good stats for a rookie and even more impressive when he is getting pressured on half of his throws and sacked 5 times a game. He is helped by a lack of run game (more on that below) and being asked to throw 47 times a game. I doubt the Bengals wanted him to be leaned on so heavily this early in his career but he has stepped up and played very good football. Burrow has a bright future and whether you’re a contender or in a rebuild, he will be a nice piece to build around.
SF Buy Price – 2 1sts
SF Sell Price – 3 1sts



James Robinson, RB JAX
A JAG for the Jags is what everyone thought when they saw James Robinson as the Week 1 starter. The undrafted rookie out of Illinois State saw the path to carries part before him like the Red Sea. The red Robinson was seeing, however, were injury designation tags (O) next to his running back teammates names and the new colors the former 4th overall pick, Leonard Fournette, is now wearing in Tampa Bay. The current RB6 on 18 touches per game, Robinson has gotten better every week.

Week 1 – 90 yards
Week 2 – 120 yards, 1 TD
Week 3 – 130 yards, 2 TD

He is polarizing to value because Ryquell Armstead has been on the COVID exempt list and Devine Ozigbo is now on IR. Ryquell has the highest draft pedigree but as a 5th round pick that doesn’t really mean the coaches owe him anything. If you think he has a future beyond 2020 then, by all means, elevate the guy into your top rookie rankings but I want to see what happens when Armstead and Ozigbo return. I certainly don’t see him being a safe bet to start in 2021 even with a successful rookie campaign.

Buy Price – Mid 2nd
Sell Price – 3 Different Values:
1. Mid 1st – If you a contending team with no depth
2. Early 2nd – If you’re a rebuilding team looking to shed points
3. Late 1st – If you’re a contending team and he doesn’t make your starting lineup



Darrell Henderson, RB LAR
After a shaky week 1, Henderson has seen 35 touches for 241 total yards and 2 TD’s in weeks 2 and 3. Henderson is making the most of his turn as the lead back with Akers and Brown injured. He is also the highest-rated running back through week 3 according to Pro Football Focus. What’s this mean for his dynasty outlook for the rest of the year? It means that even when Akers is healthy, Henderson isn’t going away. At worst, this will be a 2 man committee if Akers produces, and at best, Henderson is the lead back in an offense that made a healthy Todd Gurley a cheat code. I’d be super excited if I held my share of Henderson this offseason and would be trying to buy Akers as a HANDCUFF. He has been that impressive.

Buy Price – Any 2nd
Sell Price – Any 1st



Justin Jefferson, WR MIN
Oh boy, there is nothing like the feeling of validation. My favorite to be the rookie WR1 this season did not disappoint week 3. JUST-IN case you missed it, Mr. Jefferson went off for 7 catches, 175 yards, and a TD. The Vikings promised after week 2 to get the rookie more involved and they did just that. He led the team in targets with 9 and exceeded 100 yards before halftime. He had the 3rd highest-rated game for a rookie WR since 2006. His Week 3 performance vaulted him to be the current PPR leader in points for all rookie WRs. He isn’t as consistent as CeeDee Lamb but if he continues to be featured as the Vikings claim him to be, he can already hoist that Rookie WR1 Trophy over his head now. So long as Cousins can actually throw the ball where it needs to go.

Buy Price – 2 1sts
Sell Price – I’d hold



Stefon Diggs, WR BUF
“Josh Allen can’t support a WR1!”. False. Josh Allen has been a machine through the air and Stefon Diggs is making his request to be traded from the Vikings look genius. He is currently the overall WR4 and has a TD, 8 receptions, or 150 yards in every game. Oh, and his last game featured a 14.9 point performance against one of the best corners in the league, Jalen Ramsey. I think it’s safe to bump Diggs up to his 2019 value or higher going forward and I look forward to him being a WR1 the rest of the season.

Buy Price – 2 1sts
Sell Price – 3 1sts




Jonnu Smith, TE TEN
A dynasty darling sleeper since his rookie year in 2017, Smith has finally arrived with Delanie Walker gone and Tannehill under center. He is the overall TE2 through Week 3 with 20 targets, 13 catches, 181 yards, and 3 TDs. Those are great numbers for the fourth-year pro. Some of his success might be due to the absence of AJ Brown but I’d count on him being a mid to low TE1 for the rest of the season. 

Buy Price – Early 2nd
Sell Price – Mid 1st


 

Fallers



Dwayne Haskins, QB WAS
It’s been a rough start for the young Buckeye. Just 625 yards and a 4:3 touchdown to interception ratio through week 3 doesn’t bode well for the long term value of a QB that was already on thin ice. Head coach Ron Rivera basically threw the rookie under the bus this week saying that there will be a cutoff point for him to progress and be replaced by Kyle Allen. Even though he only has one legitimate pass catcher in Terry McLaurin, Rivera blamed 2 of his 3 interceptions on Haskin’s accuracy on Sunday. Besides the Jets, Washington might have the least amount of talent to support their QB in the league. While I’m not entirely sold that he as bad as his coach thinks, this doesn’t look good.

SF Buy Price – Early 2nd
SF Sell Price – Hold


Joe Mixon, RB CIN
He is getting the volume the dynasty community has wanted since 2017 but that isn’t translating to production. With a pedestrian 3.15 yards per carry, 157 yards, and zero scores, Mixon has been a major disappointment. If I were a bartender, I’d be Mixon up an extra-strong cocktail to help me sleep at night. This isn’t new since he also struggled out of the gate in 2019 as well. I imagine teams will start respecting Burrow more and Mixon will get better chances down the stretch. Mixon is a 3 down talent and the success will complement the volume soon.

Buy Price – Mid 1st
Sell Price – Early 1st



JK Dobbins, RB BAL
The most carries Dobbins has seen this year was seven back in Week 1 and most of those came during garbage time. This was also the only game Dobbins had more than 10 fantasy points on the back of his two touchdowns. It isn’t that Dobbins is struggling when he gets touches, it’s that he simply isn’t getting the touches. In the happiest of run-happy offenses, it was expected that the rookie would be a low-end RB2 for the season. The Ravens appear to think otherwise since they refuse to let Gus Edwards go away.


Snaps
Player              Week 1   Week 2   Week 3
JK Dobbins        23          20            24
Mark Ingram     21          27             18
Gus Edwards     15          20             13

Touches
Player               Week 1   Week 2   Week 3
JK Dobbins          7              3               5
Mark Ingram      10            11              7
Gus Edwards       4            10              4

Divide up those snaps and touches amongst Ingram and Dobbins and it’s very likely they are both RB2’s for the year. I think he gets more involved as the season goes but this is a big worry for the consensus rookie RB3.

Buy Price – Mid 1st
Sell Price – Early 1st




Bryan Edwards, WR OAK
It’s kind of hard to put this guy on the fallers list because his value right now is basically what it was after the NFL draft. The problem is, his training camp hype was out of control and people were placing him on the rookie WR1 pedestal. The hype even came from his own QB who likened him to Davante Adams. That hype hasn’t translated to points as he is only 5th on the team in targets and 3rd amongst WR’s. Renfrow and Waller seem to have Carr’s trust more than the rookies but I don’t think it lasts. Ruggs is a field stretcher and Edwards really does have Adam’s type of skillset.

Buy Price – Early 2nd
Sell Price – Any 1st



Brandin Cooks, WR HOU
Cooks was in dynasty hell and the end of last season until the Texans traded for him. Assumed to be the beneficiary of the vacant targets DeAndre Hopkins left behind, Cooks hasn’t been able to get on the same page as Deshaun Watson. He leads the team in targets but at only 6 per game, which isn’t a good enough volume to sustain a WR2. While he gained some value back thanks to the trade, it will take a strong finish for Cooks to get back into the top 50 asset value point he was at before 2019.

Buy Price – Late 2nd/Early 3rd
Sell Price – Any 2nd



Chris Herndon, TE NYJ
This has more to do with the state of the Jets than it does with Herndon. Another dynasty sleeper darling at TE, Herndon hasn’t had the chance to show he is worthy of the hype. The Jets are a mess and at only 5 targets a game, Herndon isn’t going to be lighting up any scoreboards. I figured after Crowder and Mims got hurt that Herndon would get peppered with targets and be a TE1 for a stretch. Sadly, that didn’t happen as the Jets can’t sustain drives and Darnold has zero time to throw. Maybe garbage time becomes a factor down the stretch but I am in full panic mode for all Jets with the exception of Mims.

Buy Price – Late 3rd
Sell Price – Any 3rd

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