Dynasty is a marathon not a sprint, but weekly performances ultimately determine value. A major key to building lasting dynasties is staying ahead of the market on player values. Some of my dynasty fallers might be pointing out slight lulls in an otherwise productive season. However, some of the fallers might be in the midst of troubling trends that may sink their trade value over the coming weeks. Check out my week 7 dynasty fallers and see if you can decipher which is which.
Drew Lock, QB
The Denver Broncos poured resources into the offensive side of the ball this offseason. They signed Melvin Gordon to a 2-year contract worth $16 million to join thousand-yard rusher Phillip Lindsay in the backfield. They drafted Jerry Jeudy (more on him later) and KJ Hamler in the first two rounds of the NFL draft to join the ascending Courtland Sutton at wide receiver. They also added a physical specimen in Albert Okwuegbunam at tight end to pair with Noah Fant, a first-round pick from the year prior. After adding all that talent to the offensive side of the ball there was only one variable; how good is Drew Lock? The early results are not very promising. Through four games played, Lock has one touchdown compared to four picks. He is completing just 56% of his passes and is averaging less than 220 yards in games he has started and finished. Courtland Sutton’s season-ending injury in week two has left Lock with fewer weapons than he was projected to have but some other struggling QB’s would love to have his complement of weapons (poor Sam Darnold).
Kenyan Drake, RB
The first portion of this is pretty self-explanatory, Drake tore a ligament in his ankle Sunday against the Seahawks and is expected to miss a few weeks of action. Getting put on the shelf for a few games is enough to drop anyone down the rankings temporarily but I would rarely include a player as a dynasty faller for a short-term injury. The thing that solidified Drakes’s position on my fallers is how good Chase Edmonds looked Sunday night. Edmonds took 12 touches for 145 yards from scrimmage against the Seahawks and it does not take too deep of a dive into their stats on the year to see that Edmonds has been the more productive back all season. Through week 7, Edmonds is averaging just over 6 yards per carry compared to Drake’s 4.3. Edmonds has spent all year as the favorite for passing work, having posted 26 catches for 222 yards as opposed to 7 catches for 29 yards on the year for Drake. If Edmonds produces sans Drake, you might not see Drake return to his pre-injury role where he was averaging 17.5 carries per game.
Ezekiel Elliott, RB
This could go for every Dallas skill position player but the injury to Dak Prescott looks like it might stifle Elliott this year. Zeke is a bona fide stud so I am not advocating that he should be out of your lineup but he might fall short of his elite RB1 numbers that fantasy managers are accustomed to. Over the last two games, since Dalton has become the starter, he has just 12 carriers in each game and has not reached 50 yards. Tony Pollard has had his two highest snap percentages of the season over the last two weeks as a result of a pass heavier game script. Compounding his struggles, Zeke has also developed a propensity for fumbling the ball, having as many fumbles through 7 games this season as he has had the last two seasons combined. I wish I could place all of the blame on Dalton but the truth is the Mike McCarthy offense might have something to do with it as well. After averaging over 90 yards rushing per game over the past two seasons, Zeke is only averaging 65 yards rushing in 2020. He has made up some of the lost production through the passing game but between Dalton, McCarthy, and Zeke’s own fumbling issues he may lose his status as a top 5 dynasty asset that he has held since his rookie season.
Mike Evans, WR
This one is pretty straight forward. This season, in the 3 games where Chris Godwin sits Evans is averaging over 21 PPR points per game. In the 4 games where Chris Godwin plays Evans is averaging just over 7 PPR points per game, and that includes 3 touchdowns in those four games. He is averaging 1.5 catches per game for 12.75 yards when Godwin plays. Even his opportunities have been limited by Godwin as his targets per game go from 9 per game to 3 per game when Godwin starts. The good news for Evans owners is that Godwin is looking at a multiple week absence due to a fractured finger suffered against the Raiders last week, the bad news is that more target competition is about to arrive in the form of the recently signed Antonio Brown. Whether or not Brown is going to be the same fantasy force he was before he became the greatest single locker room cancer since peak T.O. is anyone’s guess. What I do know is that when all three are active and in the lineup, Mike Evans and his second-string tight end stat lines might not even be flex worthy if this current trend continues.
Jerry Jeudy, WR
I am not sure Jeudy’s dynasty value has really taken that much of a hit. However, he is definitely a faller as of late in terms of his standing among current rookies, and rookie wide receivers in particular. While Justin Jefferson, CeeDee Lamb, and Tee Higgins have all been extremely impressive to start their careers, Jeudy has been a little slow out of the starting gate. Jeudy has just two catches in each of his last three games and his target numbers have followed suit. Over his last three games, Jeudy is averaging just over 4 targets per game, down from the 8 targets he was averaging over the first three weeks of the season. I had figured that Sutton’s injury was going to do wonders for Jeudy’s rookie year production, as he was now the alpha in that offense. Not only has that not occurred, but you are seeing other rookie wide receivers out-produce Jeudy while playing with much more target competition. Lamb has Gallup and Cooper in Dallas, Higgins has AJ Green and Tyler Boyd in Cincinnati, and Jefferson has Adam Thielen. Meanwhile, Jeudy is getting drastically outplayed by Sutton’s replacement, Tim Patrick. Since Sutton went down in week 2, Patrick’s line is 17/301/2 while Jeudy’s is 11/168/1. This is not a death sentence for Jeudy as he has every excuse in a post-COVID world to need time to acclimate to the NFL, but when compared to other wide receivers in his class, he has not performed up to his draft position.
Jonnu Smith, TE
Truth be told I just don’t have a glaring TE faller this week so Jonnu gets the nod essentially by default. Jonnu was the TE3 in average PPG for fantasy through 5 weeks, having the look of a possible league winner. In the 2 weeks since then he is averaging 2.1 PPG, a far cry from the tear he was on to begin the year. Jonnu suffered an ankle injury that knocked him out of the game in week 6 and he was quite possibly playing at less than 100% in week 7, so maybe this is a blip on the radar of what will be a successful season for the fourth-year pro. The only thing giving me pause is that Corey Davis and AJ Brown have been tagging each other in and out of the lineup for most of the year, so Jonnu has been serving as a de facto WR1 or 2 for the Titans for much of the season. I do not believe he is going to fall any further than a backend TE1 this season, but he might not be an elite option at the position as long as both AJ Brown and the resurgent Corey Davis are healthy.
That’s a wrap for my fallers this week. Feel free to give us feedback and be sure to check out all of our dynasty content.