In a follow-up to rounds 1-3, we’re back to give you our analysis for rounds 4-8 of our staff’s 2019 fantasy football mock draft. You can use these articles to help prepare for your upcoming drafts or to tell us how wrong we are. As always, the mock was done via Sleeper, and you can check out the full draft board here.
4.12 – O.J. Howard – I’m a fan of the strategy that you should only splurge on one premium position, such as TE or QB. With that in mind, I mostly lean tight end since it’s harder to hit on your late-round tight end picks versus your late-round quarterbacks. Howard was the best available at the position, slightly ahead of Hunter Henry in my view, but I like both guys in that second tier.
5.01 – Robert Woods – Woods is one of the most consistent week-to-week wide receivers out there. Not counting Week 17 when the Rams were resting, Woods went for at least 70 yards or a score in 13 out of 15 games.
6.12 – Lamar Miller – He’s one of the most boring players you can draft this season–absolutely no one will be throwing their hands in the air as if you just stole their favorite sleeper. With that said, I’m buying his role in a potent Houston offense with a mobile quarterback and lots of scoring opportunities. With the release of D’onta Foreman, there’s no threat to his workload.
7.1 – Rashaad Penny – With the safety of Miller in tow, I wanted to take a chance on the upside of Penny. I’ve written everything you need to know about him here.
8.12 – Keke Coutee – I really wanted Curtis Samuel to fall to me, but was happy with Coutee as a consolation prize. As I mentioned earlier, I’m expecting big things from the Texans offense this season. From Week 8 on, Deshaun Watson completed 73% of his passes for 16 touchdowns and just 2 interceptions. With Fuller’s health seemingly always in question, that leaves a sizable target share available for Coutee.
4.11 – Kenyan Drake – This felt a tad early for Drake, but when I examined the available RBs, he was the last one before a significant drop-off. There’s some early Kalen Ballage noise, but I’m not concerned yet. I believe talent emerges and Drake will be the clear lead back in Miami. Also, when the ‘Fins inevitably play from behind every week, Drake’s superior receiving skills should keep him on the field putting up some garbage time fantasy points.
5.02 – Tyler Lockett – With Doug Baldwin’s retirement, Lockett ascends to the clear top target for Wilson. Lockett has never been a huge target guy, but as the most talented and only proven receiver on the team, that should change. The early expectation is that Lockett will play inside in 3WR sets, so he should add easier short-area production to his usual deep ball proficiency.
6.11 – Tyler Boyd – Easily my best pick of the draft in terms of value. Boyd should be going in round 5, so I ran this card to the podium. He has been extremely consistent and gotten better every year. I’m expecting Zac Taylor’s new scheme to get much more out of the Bengals passing game talent, including Boyd.
7.02 – Miles Sanders – When the season is over I think we’ll look back and see that Sanders was the best rookie RB in 2019. Many believe that Doug Pederson will continue his habit of having a rotating RB committee, but I’m not so sure. Philly has never had an RB worthy of 20+ touches before now. It may take 4-5 weeks but I expect Sanders to emerge as the lead dog in what should be a prolific offense.
8.11 – N’Keal Harry – Didn’t love this pick as I was scrambling a bit after Samuel got sniped right before me. With Edelman hurt, Josh Gordon in limbo and little talent at TE, the Pats may be forced to lean on Harry more than they’d like to. After a stellar career at ASU, we’ll see how quickly he adapts at the next level.
4.10 – Kenny Golladay– After taking 3 straight RBs, it was time to grab my #1 WR. Golladay was a rising star last season and has a chance to become a real stud. He is a true number one with only Marvin Jones behind him and should be locked into 8+ targets a week.
5.03 – Derrius Guice – This is one of my favorite picks of the season. Right now it’s a very murky situation but I’m a big believer that talent wins out. Guice was the best pure runner in the draft last season and is also a superb receiver. This is a spot where I had the chance to get a potential workhorse on a rising offense under Haskins. Easy.
6.10 – Christian Kirk – Time for my second WR. Kingsbury is known for running a super fast, spread offense. It could be reminiscent of Chip Kelly’s scheme from his Eagles day. Anytime a lot of plays (volume) are run, a lot of fantasy success follows. Grabbing the number one wide receiver there strengthens the position for me.
7.03 – Royce Freeman – With this pick I went back to the running back well and grabbed the stud second-round pick from a season ago. All the love has rightfully been placed on Lindsay because of the season he had last year. With that said, Freeman was a 5th round pick last season in fantasy and has the same upside as a season ago. He’s super talented and could end up with control of this backfield or at the very least the goal line.
8.10 – Curtis Samuel – I love the Panthers this year. I have Cam Newton as a top 3 QB in large part to D.J. Moore and Curtis Samuel. Samuel reminds me a lot of Stefon Diggs and with the defensive coverage being drawn to Christian McCaffrey and Moore, things could really open up for Samuel. I loved this value here.
4.09 – Chris Carson – And now we enter the “High-Upside-Higher-Risk” portion of my draft. Carson is recovering from a knee procedure but is an effective cog in a murky, crowded Seattle backfield. Whilst it is unclear if he will emerge as a feature back we can rely on the fact the Seahawks will run the ball. It is hard to question his talent — he passes every eye-test — but his timeshare role and ongoing health are more concerning.
5.04 – Cooper Kupp – After taking three RBs and a QB (gasp!) it was probably time to expend some draft capital on a WR. Kupp is perhaps the lesser third of the receiving trio. This is not a designation that would see a player become a viable option in normal fantasy circumstances. The LA Rams are not a team of typical fantasy output, however. In the 2018 season Kupp saw 439 snaps in the eight games he was healthy. His catch percentage of 71% was higher than Brandin Cooks and Robert Woods — who each played the entire season. As one would expect his total reception yardage was dwarfed by his teammates but he still chalked up 6 TDs. Cooks and Woods scored 5 and 6 respectively in their 16 regular-season games. It remains tome seen what version of Todd Gurley the Rams are going to have this year. His effectiveness in the run and passing game will be keenly felt by the LA offense. But the offense has consistently demonstrated an ‘everybody eats’ mentality — Cooper Kupp could be ravenous coming off of injury.
6.09 – Tarik Cohen – Sometimes we reach for our favorite players. Sometimes we respond to positional need. I probably didn’t need another RB in the sixth round, but I love Cohen. And in my defense — he represents good value in the sixth. He will be on the field plenty in Matt Nagy’s offense. He has ‘big-play-ability’ and most importantly for my roster, he isn’t injured.
7.04 – Alshon Jeffrey – If I am willing to gamble on the precarious fitness of David Johnson, Dalvin Cook, Chris Carson, and Cooper Kupp then I should afford the same courtesy to Alshon Jeffrey. You cannot argue with his size, mobility and impressive catch radius. He is a prototypical outside receiver that plays with a good QB in an offense that can scheme him open. If he isn’t open he can contest the 50-50 balls. His tendency to miss games is more concerning than any talent or opportunity deficit.
8.09 – Eric Ebron – Not a player I actively targeted. This is where I demonstrated my draft flexibility -he represented value at the spot. The hope, of course, is he is last year’s Colts Eric Ebron. The fear is he is any year’s Lions Eric Ebron. Jack Doyle’s return may diminish Ebron’s role but there is no indication he will fall completely off the fantasy radar. He appears to have his QB and OC’s trust. Whether or not I actively targeted him doesn’t matter — the fantasy scoring will come if Andrew Luck continues too.
AUTO – Analysis by Cody Kutzer
4.08 – David Montgomery – I loved Montgomery as a prospect, but his role with the Bears is (currently) unclear. Tarik Cohen is too explosive to not see touches and the entire franchise has been talking up Mike Davis. Over time Montgomery should become the clear lead back, but this is a tad earlier than I’d feel comfortable taking him.
5.05 – Andrew Luck – Given Luck’s calf injury and my preference to wait on quarterback, I would have gone elsewhere with this pick.
6.08 – Evan Engram – Engram is clearly a better move tight end than he is a blocking one, and with the way the Giants offseason is going, he might have to be flexed out permanently. Late round six makes sense for the athletic TE.
7.05 – Latavius Murray – If Mark Ingram stayed in New Orleans he’d be getting drafted two rounds above this. Murray will be sliding into the role vacated by Ingram so this is a nice grab here.
8.08 – Larry Fitzgerald – This feels a liiiittle too early for me. I’m really curious to see how the target distribution plays out in Coach Kingsbury’s offense, but I’m thinking Fitz at 8.08 is a bit rich. I’d much prefer Curtis Samuel who went two picks later.
4.07 – Mark Ingram – Ingram missed four games in 2018 and still finished as the 32nd-best halfback in the league, however, he finished 20th from week 5 on. If Ingram plays in all 16 games he’s likely to break 180-190 fantasy points which is good for top 12. Last time Ingram had a full season of snaps he was the 6th best RB. Getting that kind of upside in the 4th round is outstanding.
5.06 – Sony Michel – Sticking with the run on halfbacks I took Michel with the 6th pick in the 5th round. A lot of people are scared of Michel being on the PUP list and of course a very busy backfield in NE. Despite the scares, Michel finished 2018 in amazing fashion as the 4th best RB from week 12 on including the playoffs. There is certainly a crowd in New England but Michel is clearly the most talented on the group and should remain at the top.
6.07 – Jarvis Landry – I was fine with Landry here because I am still not sold on Christian Kirk being the guy yet and AJ Green hadn’t hurt himself yet so Tyler Boyd wasn’t an option for me this early. Landry may lose a bit on the number of targets with the addition of OBJ, but he’ll get plenty of single coverage because of him too. A boost in touchdowns can turn him into a borderline WR1 candidate.
7.06 – Baker Mayfield – I usually recommend waiting for a QB but with a group of players I am not hyped about including, Sterling Shepard, Keke Coutee, Will Fuller or Ronald Jones III this pick was between Corey Davis and Baker Mayfield. I thought I could wait around and get Davis in the 8th but that didn’t pan out. Mayfield finished 11th as the starting QB in Cleveland last year (weeks 3-17) and gets a major boost with the addition of Beckham Jr.
8.07 – Kareem Hunt – Continuing my run on members of the Browns offense, I nabbed Hunt here about a round later than he normally goes in 12-team leagues. He won’t play for at least the first nine weeks of the season due to suspension but is likely going to get a decent role in the Browns offense once he’s back on the field.
4.06 – Josh Jacobs – Looking at who was available at this pick, the tier break was larger with running back versus any other position, so I snagged Jacobs here. There are more questions with the backs to follow Jacobs, and wide receiver is super deep this year.
5.07 – Calvin Ridley – Ridley’s touchdown percentage from last year (6.4%) is sure to regress, but that doesn’t mean he can’t build upon his targets, receptions, and yardage from last year. Ridley is a legit route runner and has one of the best receivers in the league taking pressure off him.
6.06 – Sammy Watkins – If you’ve followed along with any of the offseason content from TFA, you know my feelings on Watkins. All we need is a healthy season and this pick will be an absolute steal.
7.07 – Dante Pettis – If Pettis gets the Shanahan-number-one-receiver treatment, he could be in line for a massive year. He’s clearly the top wide receiver threat for Jimmy Garoppolo.
8.06 – Geronimo Allison – This is my least favorite pick of the entire mock, but I’ll live with taking a shot on Aaron Rodger’s (possible) number two receiver in the eighth round.
4.05 – Julian Edelman – At this point, I have three solid players (1 WR and 2 RBs) with top 10 upside at their positions. The tier of RBs left have too many questions for me to feel comfortable passing on a high floor WR. Though we now know Edelman will miss Training camp with a broken thumb, he’s the guy in NE this season. In 12 games in 2018 (4 game suspension), he still finished as the #22 fantasy WR in PPR. Now Gronk is retired (we think) and his 13% target share is up for grabs. When Gronk missed half the season in 2016, Edelman finished as the #14 fantasy WR with a whopping 160 targets.
5.08 – Phillip Lindsay -I just love this guy. Teammates praise his energy and work ethic, earning him raves from camp. Second-year back Royce Freeman will try to prove he deserves more opportunities this season (and that he can stay healthy) and could be a great 1-2 punch with Lindsay out of the backfield. Lindsay’s dynamic play makes me confident in his ability to be an RB3/flex this season. It’s not like he’s in any worse of a situation than the RBs going around him: Cohen, Miller, Coleman, or White. With sophomore WRs Sutton and Hamiton trying to step up their game and Sanders returning from a devastating Achilles injury, Denver should rely on its running game in 2019.
6.05 – Robby Anderson -Ok, so at this point in the draft, I’m ok with a little risk to get some upside. No one doubts Robby’s ability to take the top off the defense and make bigs plays downfield. But, this year we need to see him develop more consistency and better route running. The addition of Bell will definitely help Anderson get more one-on-one coverage. With Herndon suspended 4 games, they’ll need Robby and Jamison Crowder (added this offseason) to help out sophomore QB Sam Darnold. Anderson has worked with one of my favorite players of all time, Hines Ward (an excellent route runner and former Steelers WR), at camp this week.
7.08 – Sterling Shepard-This is my least favorite pick but just because I don’t want much of that offense besides Barkley. This was also before the thumb fracture occurred that will keep Shepard out of practice most likely all the way up to Week 1. Without OBJ, an injury to Corey Coleman (ACL) and 4 game suspension for Tate, a hopefully healthy Sterling should best his 108 targets from 2018. Evan Engram and Barkley also should see upticks in targets with OBJ vacating 129 targets (22% of target share). For my WR4, I’m OK with a guy that should see around 20% overall target share in 2019 on a team that will be throwing (8th in passing attempts last season).
8.05 Austin Ekeler – Melvin Gordon seems intent on holding out for a new deal, which should cause Ekeler’s ADP to keep rising. Even with Gordon there, Ekeler showed he has standalone fantasy value in 2018 and finished as the #25 RB in PPR last season (and he even missed 2 games). His ceiling is capped with Gordon there and he will share touches with Justin Jackson in the event of an extended absence from Gordon. But, he scored double-digit fantasy points in 9/14 games last season. Not too bad for my RB4.
AUTO – Analysis by Cody Kutzer
4.04 – Derrick Henry – I’m a verified #HenryHater, so I wouldn’t have been a fan of this pick to begin with, let alone with his training camp injury. Henry is dealing with a calf strain and it isn’t thought to be serious, but I like a handful of the picks after Henry.
5.09 – Aaron Rodgers – With how deep quarterback is this year (and most years), the fifth round is too early for me.
6.04 – Mike Williams – I’m beginning to sound like a hater here, but I’m not down with this pick either. Williams had 10 touchdowns on just 43 catches last year. Sure, his targets and catches could increase this year, but if he doesn’t find the endzone as frequently, he’s going to disappoint a lot of people at this price.
7.09 – Will Fuller – This pick could either be a steal or a complete waste. For Fuller, it has always come down to health and staying on the field, and this year will be no different. If he can stay healthy, he’ll produce more like a fourth or fifth-round pick.
8.04 – Vance McDonald – Finally, a pick I can get behind! There are health questions with McDonald just as there is with Fuller, but the opportunity is being presented on a golden platter. That Antonio Brown guy is off to the west coast and the pass-catching depth chart isn’t exactly intimidating. McDonald could deliver in a big way this year if we get 14-16 games from him.
4.03 – Chris Godwin – I don’t need to explain this pick. He’s my guy. I have hitched my wagon to Godwin this offseason and own him everywhere. It wouldn’t be a draft without my reaching a bit on him in at the 4.03. I currently have him at WR14 in my PPR rankings and feel fantastic about getting him anywhere in the 4th round or later. His upside is immense playing the slot role in Bruce Arians offense.
5.10 – Hunter Henry – With Kelce, Ertz, Kittle, and Howard off the board, I decided to solidify my TE position rather than wait. Henry is in a terrific spot in that offense. He should be the top target inside the red zone and is over a year removed from ACL surgery. This is an easy buy at the backend of the 5th round.
6.03 – Allen Robinson – Because who needs running backs at this point. I have made my ZeroRB bed and now I’m going to lay in it. Allen Robinson represents one of the best values in any format this season. It’s not very often you get a WR with his upside who is locked in as the teams WR1 in the 6th round.
7.10 – Ronald Jones – I’m not going to lie. I felt gross. The fact that my team’s RB1 is Ronald Jones makes me want to puke. I hammered RB with seven of my nine final picks. What could possibly go wrong here?
8.03 – Damien Harris – This is another boom or bust pick. I decided to go with strictly upside at the running back position. I’m looking to hit bombs. I’m Adam Dunn. I might strikeout 200 times but if I connect it’s going over the fence. Harris has no business being my No2 RB. His path to relevancy is through an injury to Sony Michel, which isn’t all that outlandish considering his battles with knee injuries.
4.02 – Aaron Jones – Being on the turn has its advantages, with just 2 picks between my last one and this one, I was confident I could grab my RB1 in this spot, and I was right. I fully expect the new coaching staff in Green Bay to try and get a ground game going to take some pressure off the pass, and Jones is their best option to do so.
5.11 – Tevin Coleman – The 49ers coaching staff is saying that Coleman will be the primary back, and although I’m skeptical, I love this value here in the 5th round. Last time Tevin played for Shanahan he enjoyed a season which saw him rush for 628 yards and 5 touchdowns, plus tack on 27 receptions for 299 yards and 3 touchdowns, all behind starter Devonta Freeman. If he truly does land the starting job in San Fran, it’s hard to see a scenario where he doesn’t eclipse 1,000 total yards and 8 scores.
6.02 – James White – Recency bias makes it easy to forget that James White was an RB1 for the first half of the season last year. With the loss of Gronkowski, I actually think White takes on an even bigger role in the passing game. Last years 1,176 total yards and 12 touchdowns in theory seems hard to replicate, but there will be plenty of opportunity, and if he can replicate them, how big of a steal is this 6th round value?
7.11 – Darrell Henderson – I continue my RB trend by grabbing the Rams rookie that seems to have the fantasy universe buzzing. This buzz is largely due to the issues with Gurley’s knee causing people to tag Henderson as a must-own in case he goes down. I fear Malcolm Brown owns the RB2 spot right now, but Henderson is a 3rd round pick, a pretty hefty price to pay for a position that we assumed was locked down. With his current ADP in the 5th round, I did get some value here, but of all my picks so far, this could be the one I regret the most. If Gurley ends up being fine all year, this goes down as a wasted pick.
8.02 – Jaylen Samuels – I may be over-compensating for starting the draft TE, WR, WR by grabbing my fifth running back in a row, but this move was largely because I didn’t think Samuels would get past Kevin at the next pick, and he’s one of my favorite late-round backs to target. I’m not a James Conner hater either, I actually really like him, but the Steelers showed last year they were willing to find ways to get Samuels involved, whether at TE or RB, and now that they’re officially without stars Bell and Brown, I think we see a lot more involvement for Samuels.
4.01 – George Kittle – Really like this pick here. Kittle in the 4th gives me an instant advantage weekly over 70% of my opponents. I expect he will remain the number one target despite statistics being worse with Jimmy Garoppolo.
5.12 – Deshaun Watson – I typically don’t advocate going QB early- but to lock down Kittle and Deshaun allows me to avoid the positions for the rest of the draft and focus on hammering RB late for the eventual attrition.
6.01 – DJ Moore – This he takes a step forward this year. Getting him at my WR3 spot feels like a nice safe floor play. I expect mid-range WR2 numbers and to pair with upside guys like OBJ and Cooks really rounds out my WR core nicely. If I can find some value at RB later I will really like this start.
7.12 – Corey Davis – He was 4 yards away from being a WR2 last year- yet everyone is writing him off for dead. If Corey Davis was not drafted by the Titans he would be a top-12 WR. I believe he takes a huge step forward and having him as my WR4 is not fair. I love this guy and he is one I will have a ton of in redraft this year.
8.01 – Courtland Sutton – My WR5 is a number one target in his offense? Man-oh-man, I am feeling better and better about this squad with each passing pick. Don’t particularly love Sutton as a player but the opportunity is undeniable. Manny Sanders looks like he will be good to go week 1 but Achilles are tough to get over. Sutton gives me a very nice upside shot to round out my WR core early in this draft. Also allows me to practically ignore this position (along with QB and TE) and just hammer RB and only add WR when there is glaring value.
There you have it; rounds 4-8 of the staff’s 2019 fantasy football mock draft. Keep checking back for more content headed your way, along with our favorite picks from rounds 9 and beyond from this same mock!