Buy Low, Sell High Week 5
Buy Low, Sell High Week 5 comes at a crucial point in the fantasy season. We are at the quarter-pole of the NFL season and from now on we can rely on a decent sample size when projecting performance. Defenses are showing red flags in areas of vulnerability, roles are being clearly defined on offense, and alas, injuries abound just to make things more interesting.
Today, I am going to tell you to break up with some of your long-time fantasy partners and explore greener pastures. I also am going to suggest a one-week rental that could yield a nice return on the trade market. Let’s get started with Buy Low, Sell High Week 5!
I used Carson Palmer last week as well but I implore you to add this signal caller. Since David Johnson went down with injury Palmer leads the NFL in pass attempts and is 2nd in yards per game 320 per contest. In leagues that award bonuses for 300-yard games, Palmer is a clear QB1 as the Cardinals can only move the ball via the pass. Larry Fitzgerald has had a career re-birth and is looking like a true WR1. With Brown & Brown as tandem deep threats and the reliable Jermaine Gresham at TE, look for Palmer to produce weekly.
Here is your one-week rental. In 11% of ESPN leagues, Cam is on the waiver-wire and has a nice matchup with the Eagles. Philly has surrendered season-high performances to Eli Manning and Philip Rivers in consecutive weeks. There is obviously still some love for Newton and with injuries to Derek Carr and possible missed time for Marcus Mariota, “Superman” might be too much to pass on after the big week he is about to stack on last week’s performance.
Hopefully, all of you followed my tip last week and used Wilson vs. the Colts on Sunday night. It started off a little rough but Russell rebounded nicely to rack up 30 points. The injury Chris Carson could lead to more pass attempts but the upcoming slate is brutal. Following the week 6 bye, Wilson faces the Giants, Texans, Redskins, Cardinals, and Falcons. All of whom possess great talent in the secondary and look to limit Wilson’s passing upside significantly. Given the lack of talent on the outside, I expect Wilson to struggle through this stretch.
In two-quarterback leagues, Goff may be the reason someone is in the first place. Goff has put up over 20 points in 3 of 4 games this season and has protected the football. He has a tough matchup with Seattle this week and things get even worse with Jacksonville, Arizona, and the Giants with a bye mixed in for the next 5 weeks. Goff will be tested and he just hasn’t done it long enough to warrant the patience.
The young back has quietly averaged 18 touches per game in the Lions offense. He doesn’t offer a ton of upside in the way of touchdowns but if you need a running back with a good floor and perhaps an expanding role, he’s your guy. Theo Riddick who finished as a top 12 PPR back last year has nearly disappeared from the offense, averaging just 7 touches per game. As teams tend to try to limit Stafford’s effectiveness, the Lions will likely try to alleviate some pressure on the highest paid NFL QB and Abdullah is clearly first in line. Also, 3 of his next 4 opponents rank in the bottom half of the league in fantasy points allowed to running backs.
Kamara is only owned in 42% of ESPN leagues. He carries a lot more value as a PPR running back but his touch total has risen each week. He saw 15 touches against the Dolphins and he is easily the most explosive runner of the 3 backs in the Big Easy. The Saints love to throw the football and will never fully commit to the run game. The offense remains explosive and with his 20 receptions through 4 games Kamara has clearly established himself as a favorite target of Drew Brees. That is a good place to be. You may be able to trade for him or snag him off waivers since the Saints are on a bye.
Lamar Miller showed his best stuff on Sunday with his 131 yards from scrimmage and 2 TDs. A closer look at the numbers suggests a modest 3.9 YPC average and he lost 13 carries to rookie runner D’Onta Foreman. QB Deshaun Watson has re-energized the Texan offense but we have all been down this road before with Miller. He shows flashes of greatness about 3 times a season and is very average or injured the rest of the time. If you can find a team in desperate need of a win, look to unload him for some quality depth right now.
Count me as one who thought Marshawn Lynch was headed to an ideal situation in Oakland. The Raiders had what was considered to be one of the best offensive lines in football and a potent group of pass-catchers. The Raiders have struggled offensively and now have at least 1 game without QB Derek Carr. Lynch’s touch count has dropped each game and it is hard to determine whether or not Beast Mode even really cares about football. He faces 3 consecutive top-10 run defenses in the league in his next 3 games so his value will continue to fall. Sell him for whatever you can scoop up.
We all know that Julio has the pedigree of success. He will be on a bye week this week and be recovering from a minor hip flexor injury and is unlikely to miss any time. Some owners may become frustrated with his lack of touchdowns and an overall lack of production from the Falcon’s offense. He will come at a price, but at this point, he may only cost an RB/WR2. Jones and the Falcons enjoy favorable matchups the next 3 weeks and have a nice playoff schedule so it would be a big addition if you can get him.
With the season-ending injury to Dalvin Cook, the Vikings will most likely need to make more plays down the field in order to be competitive. Sam Bradford may return this week, and he has built a nice rapport with Thielen. The pair connected for 157 yards in week 1 and Thielen has managed 5 or more receptions in every game this season. Thielen will over a flex floor and high-end WR2 upside.
Jeffery has put up WR2 numbers to this point in the season but has some really tough matchups ahead. He faces Patrick Peterson, Josh Norman, and the no-fly-zone of Denver in the next 4 weeks. His target share is good and that may make a good selling point but his upside is severely limited for the next month.
As if it wasn’t hard enough before with Crabtree and Cooper stealing targets from each other, now Derek Carr has a back injury. Some reports say he might only miss a game but back issues can be troubling for QBs. The Raiders have some tough matchups ahead and seem to be struggling offensively anyway. Now might be a good time to shop them.
As always, fortune favors the bold so don’t be afraid to float some trade offers. The fantasy football season is a marathon and there are always ways to replace player production. Just do your best to study the trends, play-calling, and the matchups before proposing trades and trust yourself. Good luck this week and check The Fantasy Authority for all your fantasy needs!