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Derrius Guice: The #FantasyFootball Impact

Derrus Guice insider Ian Rapoport reported Friday afternoon that Washington Redskins rookie second-round pick RB Derrius Guice tore his ACL, according to a source.

The Injury to Derrius Guice:

The report comes hours after Rapoport initially reported that Guice received an initial diagnosis of a sprained MCL, according to a source. In addition, he said that Guice would have an MRI to confirm, which revealed the torn ACL.

Lastly, Rapoport reported that Guice suffered a hyper-extended knee in college on the same knee as the ACL tear.

Guice had six carries for 19 yards with his longest run accounting for 6 yards before exiting Thursday night’s contest against the Patriots week 1 of the preseason.

The impact on Chris Thompson:

There’s never a good in an injury situation, but the injury bolds well for fellow RB Chris Thompson, who was RB10 in PPR leagues weeks 1-11 before suffering a season-ending injury himself. However, Thompson had 64 carries, or an average of 6.4 carries a game, in that span. Thompson is my RB34 going into the season (and that will go up next update). You can check out my full RB rankings here.

Thompson is the RB you want to own in PPR formats, but he won’t be much of a factor on running downs. In addition, Thompson won’t be 100 percent until November, he said.

His 8th round ADP as the 36th RB off the board will surely rocket up a bit, perhaps a round or two, but another RB will be in the mix.

The Guice Replacement: Samaje Perine or Robert Kelley?

Washington’s current RBs besides Chris Thompson are the following: Samaje Perine, Robert Kelley, Kapri Bibbs and Byron Marshall.

Perine was a 4th round pick in the 2017 NFL Draft, posting a 3.4 YPC, recording 22 receptions for 182 yards and two touchdowns (one rushing, one receiving) his rookie season in 16 games (8 games started). Perine had back-to-back 100-yard rushing games weeks 12 and 13. Pro Football Focus ranked Washington’s offensive line 12th going into 2018, which is up nine spots from their 2017 season-end ranking. If thrust in the vacant Guice role, Perine should have a chance to deliver value on draft day. The more I type, the more I like Perine as a sleeper.

Perine carried the ball seven times for 31 yards during week 1 of the preseason.

Kelley flashed as a rookie in 2016, posting a 4.2 YPC for 704 yards and six touchdowns, in addition to 12 receptions for 82 yards. Still, HC Jay Gruden drafted Perine in the following draft. However, Kelley started the season as the starter until injuries finally caught up to him week 10 when he exited a game, being placed on IR two days later. Kelley posted a 3.1 YPC for 194 yards and three touchdowns, with four receptions for 18 yards before being shut down.

Kelley carried the ball four times for 6 yards during week 1 of the preseason.

Once nicknamed “Fat Rob”, Kelley entered training camp slimmer at about 220 pounds, according to The Washington Post.

Bibbs or Marshall will more than likely operate as the team’s third-string RB.

Pandora’s Box: Redskins sign a free agent RB

As illustrated above, the pickings are slim with free agent RBs.

Alfred Morris

Alfred Morris had his YPC annually decrease from 4.8 down to 3.5 starting in 2012 to and ending in 2016. Though he posted a 4.7 YPC last season with Dallas, I credit that more to the Cowboys offensive line, more so than 29-year-old Morris.

Jamaal Charles

Charles didn’t get much work with Denver last season, but he did post a 4.3 YPC on 69 carries. But, Charles is 31 with a laundry list of previous injuries. Perhaps that is why Denver managed his usage.

Orleans Darkwa

Darkwa makes the most sense for Washington and he’s the only free agent RB left to lead his team in rushing without a job. Darkwa posted a 4.4 YPC on 171 carries for 751 yards last season, rushing for five touchdowns and recording 19 receptions for 116 yards.

Adrian Peterson

Peterson is a first ballot Hall of Famer, but at this stage in his career, it’s predictable that when he’s in the game the offense will more than likely run it. Still, Peterson posted two 130 + rushing yards games for the Cardinals last season, after being traded over from the Saints. Washington has a much better offensive line situation, but whether they kick the tires on AP remains to be seen.

Fantasy Reality Check

I wouldn’t expect the Guice replacement to be any more than an RB3 (top 36 RB) going into the season in standard and PPR leagues.

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