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Draft Prep: Fantasy Busts

le'veon bell fantasy busts

Nobody wants to draft a bust that may potentially sink your season. We’re here to give you who we think is most likely to do that – the Fantasy Authority’s fantasy busts for 2019.

Tarik Cohen – He had somewhat of a breakout season last year, pulling in 71 receptions for 725 yards and 5 scores through the air, a welcome sight for fantasy owners scouring the wire. While a solid receiving back, I think a lot of his value last year could be attributed to the many injuries to the Bears receiving core and TE Trey Burton, as well as Jordan Howard’s inability to be effective as a pass-catching back. With David Montgomery in town now, he provides the dual-threat that Howard did not, and that spells trouble for a guy like Cohen, who in two seasons, has yet to break 100 rushing attempts and relies solely on the receiving game. I’m not averse to talented pass-catching backs, but his 6th round ADP is almost guaranteed to disappoint. – Anthony Pinzone (@the1andonlypz)

The Bears Offense – They were the hot commodity last year and I think with the acquisition of David Montgomery we are getting back to a similar level of excitement. I want to pump the breaks. I don’t see any Bears WR offering enough upside in 2019 to be worth the investment and I don’t expect Montgomery to be this world-beater of a talent. I think Montgomery will be average at best. The only piece I would consider from this offense is Tarik Cohen and I would even do that with an eye to skepticism. Personally, I am all the way out on this offense. I don’t trust Trubisky and it runs too thin. – Nick Cantatore

Julian Edelman – Look, I’m a Pats fan so you can trust me on this. The days of Tom Brady throwing the ball 600 times a year are over and Edelman is not going to be used as heavily as you think he will be. The Patriots want to get back to running the football and protecting TB12 as they push for another title-run. Early word out of Foxboro is Sony Michel will be fed early & often this season. Because the run game will be the focus of the offense, that leaves us with a much smaller pie and too many “guests” to properly split it. The additions of N’Keal Harry and Josh Gordon will take away some looks from Edelman as the team tries to get them involved in the offense during the season. Phillip Dorsett is another solid contributor who has found his way into Brady’s circle of trust. Another aspect of their offense that people seem to be ignoring is the importance of James White. Remember, outside of Edelman & Gronk, James White has been arguably one of the most important “chain-movers” on the team. Gronk is now retired which leaves plenty of opportunity for White to see at least 80 targets this year. Depending on the situation with your team, “Jules” is a solid pick if you’re looking for a safe floor at your WR2, but in the 3rd round you’re taking the safe play and scared money don’t make money! – Alex Fagundes (@alfagundes_)

James White – The Pats found a new identity late last season riding the coattails of their feature back. His name wasn’t James White. After New England’s bye last year, Sony Michel asserted himself as the true bell-cow in the backfield, averaging over 19 carries a game. Now, when Michel missed time last year, James White was a borderline league winner with his prolific receiving performances. However, after New England’s bye last season, White was unable to eclipse more than 10 carries OR targets in any contest. With a healthy Michel, Rex Burkhead, and newly minted rookie Damien Harris in the fold, expect White to be relegated strictly to 3rd down usage. He will finish outside the top 40 RBs this season. – Ryan Murphy (@themurph34)

Josh Jacobs – He’s got the pedigree as he was drafted in the first round of the 2019 NFL draft. I’m not knocking his talent, but there are also some concerns with this rookie back and his current ADP.  First, we haven’t seen Jacobs in a workhorse role, though that is how Oakland plans to use him. He carried the ball just 251 times over three seasons in Alabama. Volume is king in fantasy and Jacobs should get volume. Yes. But, also, a good offensive line is nice and then there’s positive game script. Richie Incognito is suspended for two games and Gabe Jackson (knee) is out, making the offensive line look questionable at best. The Raiders don’t look to be an offensive force in 2019, despite the addition of Antonio Brown. He’s making waves everywhere but the field these days. So, game script might actually be more in Jalen Richard’s favor, who finished last season with 68 receptions. Richard quietly finished as the #29 PPR fantasy RB. Josh Jacobs will get many opportunities, but there might not be much fantasy offense/scoring to go around on the Raiders in 2019. Jacob’s 3rd round ADP is a little rich for my blood. I could see him being very TD dependent in fantasy.

Phillip Lindsay – Lindsay is listed at 5-8, 190 lbs. According to Harris Football research, he’s the first player in 12 years and third player since 2000 to eclipse 1,000 yards rushing at that small of stature (Warrick Dunn & Charlie Garner). Simply put, if I think McCaffrey might have a hard time withstanding punishment at 5-10, 205 lbs, then I think it will be even harder for Phillip Lindsay to stay healthy. It seems that Denver agrees. Word is their backfield is already headed for a 50/50 split between him and Royce Freeman. If you reduce the amount of touches, he becomes even more reliant on big plays, which is often subject to high variance at the NFL level. – Dan Haas (@Dan_Haas)

Le’Veon Bell – I cannot trust Adam Gase. Gase never wanted to sign Bell, and I am guessing that his offensive game plan will at least partially reflect that preference. Conversely, Gase did want to sign Ty Montgomery, and the preseason has shown that Montgomery will eat into Bell’s best fantasy tool: his ability to catch the ball out of the backfield. Without the same volume in the passing game, Bell will become a mid-tier RB2 and disappoint those drafting him in the first round. – Nate Henry (@NateHenryFF)

Le’Veon Bell – I don’t think Bell is going to completely bust, but I don’t see him returning value at a draft cost of 1.08. There are too many question marks surrounding his situation and too many things that can go wrong here. I’m not even convinced Bell finishes the year as an RB1. – Cody Kutzer (@CKutzerFF)

 

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