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Draft Prep: Overvalued Fantasy Football Players

kareem hunt overvalued fantasy football players

So far in our staff series, we’ve been pretty positive. We’ve talked about undervalued players, sleepers, and breakout candidates. Today, we’re going a bit negative and talking overvalued fantasy football players. Before we get into it, make sure you’re subscribed to our podcast and our YouTube channel! We’ll be live streaming our podcasts and chopping up videos all season!

Mike Williams – Going in the fifth round ahead of guys like D.J. Moore and Allen Robinson, I just don’t get it. The dude only had 43 catches last year. For some reason, people think Tyrell Williams leaving opens up a bunch of targets for MW but are forgetting about Hunter Henry returning. Mike Williams should be going at least one round later. – Cody Kutzer (@CKutzerFF)

Josh Gordon – Gordon has played in 22 NFL games since 2013, which is roughly four games per season over the past five years. It also includes two entire seasons where he didn’t suit up at all. As much as I once loved him as a player, we can’t rely on him in fantasy anymore. Last season was no exception as he hung managers out to dry during the fantasy playoffs. Gordon is simply not the same explosive player we knew from 2013 despite posting solid WR2 numbers during his time on the field. Is a WR2 really worth the gamble of someone that could go AWOL at any given moment? – Dan Haas (@Dan_Haas)

Kerryon Johnson – The Lions are going to utilize a RBBC this year and I will not be convinced otherwise. Ty Johnson has already emerged as the heir apparent to Theo Riddick & C.J. Anderson will most likely take on the goal line duties in Detroit this year. Kerryon is a phenomenal talent and there is no denying that. But Matt Patricia doesn’t care about your fantasy team and the team will stubbornly rotate between the three backs at will. This has been clear during the preseason. Kerryon & C.J. Anderson logged a 50:50 snap split with the first team during their week two matchup, and in week 3 Anderson was on the field for 23 of Matt Stafford’s 33 snaps. Johnson only saw 8 snaps. Kerryon will still finish inside the top 30 at RB, but his second-round ADP is too pricey for me. – Ryan Murphy (@themurph34)

Kareem Hunt – GUYS… just don’t. Stop drafting Kareem Hunt, end of story. He won’t see the field until Week 10 at the earliest and you’re basically taking him to waste one of your roster spots. For reference, here are some players being drafted near Kareem Hunt: Cam Newton, David Njoku, Sammy Watkins, Darwin Thompson, Matt Brieda, Jordan Howard, Royce Freeman. Don’t do that to yourself. – Alex Fagundes (@alfagundes_)

Derrick Henry Henry will be set to take control of this backfield in 2019 – again. Just like the DeVante Parker hype that comes to the surface every preseason, I am so tired of hearing this is the year Derrick Henry takes control. Yes, he played fantastic at the end of last season. Yes, he rushed for over 1,000 yards on the season. However, close to 500 of them came in the final four games. Not discrediting the performance down the stretch, but he had fresh legs against defenses that were worn down over the course of the season as 3 of the 4 were with losing records. Even in his “full bell-cow” role down the stretch, Henry only amassed 3 receptions for 21 yards over those four games. This has the feel of too much risk for too little reward. I don’t see a ceiling that justifies the risk that comes with a guy who has never been able to actually take control of the lead back role. – Nick Cantatore

Kareem Hunt Nick Chubb is the guy in Cleveland, but fantasy drafters have shown an amazing confidence in Hunt taking the job, or at least having a significant role, when he comes back. Not set to come back until week 10 from his 8 game suspension, that leaves Hunt out for over 60% of your fantasy season. Great value in the 11th or 12th, horrid value in the 8th, when you can still grab guys like Royce Freeman, Jaylen Samuels, and Duke Johnson.    – Anthony Pinzone (@the1andonlypz)

Philip Lindsay – It pains me to describe Phillip Lindsay as overvalued, after beating my drum for him earlier this summer. He exceeded all our expectations in 2018 for an undrafted free agent, ending the season as the #13 fantasy RB in PPR scoring. I’m still rooting for him, but we have to acknowledge some indicators that this won’t be just a repeat of last season. First, Denver looks to involve sophomore back Royce Freeman more as he’s taken a positive jump going into his sophomore year and was impressive this off-season. Offensive Coordinator Rich Scangarello compared the Freeman-Lindsay backfield to Atlanta’s previous Devonta Freeman + Tevin Coleman combo. They want to “finally establish a true split” at running back, which doesn’t bode well for the 5’8”, 190 pound Phillip Lindsay. Though he now will miss at least 2-4 regular season games with a shoulder injury, Theo Riddick’s presence also isn’t something that makes me feel warm and cozy about Lindsay’s draft position. Clearly Denver has a running back by committee in mind. I’m not convinced this offense will generate enough fantasy points to satisfy an early 5th round ADP (RB26) for Lindsay. Royce Freeman is going a full 5 rounds later, in the 9th as RB44 according to Fantasy Football Calculator. Now that is interesting to consider for an undervalued player. Food for thought: I’m not saying that Denver is Atlanta, but in 2016 both Devonta Freeman and Tevin Coleman finished as top 20 fantasy RBs. So, it could happen. [Cue Angels in the Outfield GIF] – Jen Smith (@TheOnlyJenSmith)

Kareem Hunt – I often try and blaze my own trail. However, there is no more egregious pick than that of Kareem Hunt in the 8th round of PPR drafts. Hunt is not allowed back until Week 10 and is already dealing with a sports hernia that he is going to be getting surgery on this week. What is truly the point of drafting a player who can’t be used until Week 10, especially once you factor in bye weeks and the overall value of bench spots. Hunt really shouldn’t be drafted and is a wasted pick. Do yourself a favor and avoid Hunt in 2019. – Kevin Steele (@FantasyWrath13)

Kenny Golladay – Drafters are way overdrafting Golladay at the moment (his current ADP is 4.12 (WR20)). While the Twitter “taeks” regarding Darrell Bevell are a bit overblown (his run-first tendency was greatly influenced by the presence of Marshawn Lynch and Adrian Peterson in his offenses), I do think the Lions will run a lot more than they did under Jim Bob Cooter. That means that Golladay’s targets are bound to take a hit. Also, the fantasy community is drafting Golladay as if he is the clear WR1 on the Lions, but Marvin Jones is still Stafford’s preferred target. Add in new TEs T.J Hockenson and Jesse James, and Golladay will be lucky to get a 19-20% target share on a mediocre offense that doesn’t pass that often. Avoid! – Nate Henry (@NateHenryFF)

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