In a (fantasy football) world where everyone is telling you who to draft – what about the players you should shy away from? I’m going to start a series of articles looking at some early-round fades for 2020 fantasy drafts. To identify these players, I’ll be using 4for4’s ADP which takes draft data across six different sites. This does come with a caveat: these aren’t players I’m saying to absolutely not draft under any circumstance. I am saying, however, I’m skipping past them in terms of their current draft cost and looking elsewhere. First up: Green Bay Packers running back Aaron Jones.
Aaron Jones, RB/Green Bay, 2.05
There’s no denying Jones’ talent or what he did last year on his way to an RB2 finish in PPR scoring. We also can’t deny head coach Matt LaFleur envisions a committee approach for the Packers’ backfield. Beyond the “coach speak”, Jones wasn’t as much of a bellcow/workhorse back as we might have thought. Let’s take a look at some of Jones’ numbers from last year:
- Jones had just 5 games of more than 13 rush attempts.
- This is particularly head-scratching considering Green Bay had the 7th-most offensive snaps with a lead.
- 10 of 16 games under 70 rushing yards.
- 7 of his 16 touchdowns came from TWO games.
- 9 games under 15 receiving yards.
- Just 5 games with a snap-share above 60%.
- 18th in opportunity share.
Could Jones force LaFleur’s hand and give the head coach no choice but to ride him? Sure, but it’s not his talent I’m questioning. With everything we’ve heard from LaFleur (dating back to last year), the second-round pick of A.J. Dillon, and the pending regression staring Jones in the face, I’m passing on the Packers running back.
Draft Alternatives: Josh Jacobs and Miles Sanders. Both running backs are being drafted immediately after Jones, and I prefer both across all fantasy formats.
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