Connect with us

Redraft

Marquise Goodwin Fantasy Outlook 2019: A Massive Value

marquise goodwin fantasy outlook 2019

“Oh my Lord, Marquise Goodwin is an unbelievable value,” I excitedly exclaimed to the TFA Slack chat today.[1] I couldn’t contain myself after I discovered that Goodwin’s ADP is unbelievably 14.06 (WR66). Through this discovery, I believe Marquise Goodwin has a fantasy outlook in 2019 that is much rosier than his average draft position suggests, and he presents quite possibly the best draft value in 2019. Don’t believe me? I’m here to prove it.

Of all the fantasy articles to read right now, I am guessing that my readers aren’t exactly exhilarated to read an article about Marquise Goodwin. Look, I understand that fantasy fatigue is real. Everybody likes NFL shake-ups and “the new hotness.” Admittedly, it is a lot of fun to be the guy who drafted Phillip Lindsay in 2018 so that you can vaunt your unbelievable foresight to your league and friends. But do you know what is more fun than gloating about your premonition regarding one player? Winning Fantasy Championships. And often boring, worn players win you fantasy championships.

Goodwin is the definition of a post-hype sleeper. Do you remember last year how excited the fantasy community was about Marquise Goodwin? Let me jog your memory. Numerous fantasy articles pointed to the connection that Garoppolo established with Goodwin during the final six games of 2016, after the Patriots traded Jimmy Garoppolo to San Francisco, when Goodwin was on pace for 232 PPR points. Veritably, those arguments swayed the fantasy community because Goodwin’s ADP in 2018 was 5.05, only tempered by his perceived inability to score touchdowns.

Now? Nobody wants to touch him. I have seen several projections suggesting that he will finish below WR80! This post-hype sleeper status means that Marquise Goodwin is currently an unbelievable value.

Goodwin’s Situation Has Changed Dramatically

Fairly, some of these projections were based on the belief that Goodwin will be cut. And those beliefs were not unfounded. For example, during the final 6 games of 2018, the 49ers benched Goodwin, and he lost his starting role to two fresh faces: Dante Pettis and Trent Taylor. Indeed, the Press Democrat asked if Goodwin had played his last game in a 49ers uniform! Adding to the pessimism, Kyle Shanahan suggested during the offseason that Goodwin will need to earn a spot on the team in 2019, despite his not insignificant salary.

But a lot has changed since those comments. Of particular note, a new WR earned the ire of Kyle Shanahan: perceived heir-apparent, Dante Pettis. Just this week, Shanahan indicated that now Dante Pettis will need to earn a starting role. 49ers beat reports echoed Pettis’s struggles, reporting that Pettis’s performance at practice has been up-and-down. But most telling of all, Pettis played in the team’s first preseason game. As savvy readers will understand, valued players with secure team roles don’t play at all in the first preseason game.

Furthermore, Trent Taylor broke his foot and will miss 4-6 weeks. While Taylor (slot receiver) plays a very different role than Goodwin, Garoppolo likely will allocate some of those targets to Goodwin, even though most targets probably go to George Kittle.

So, we are nearing preseason week 3 and the end of training camp, and Marquise Goodwin sits atop the 49ers depth chart. You can currently draft an NFL team’s WR1 for a 14th round draft pick. Do I really need to continue explaining why this is a fantastic value? Okay, fine, I will for all you Deebo Samuel/Jalen Hurd believers out there. Surely there are dozens of you:

tobias dozens of us

Goodwin Will Be an Unbelievable Value by Producing WR2 Numbers in 2019

So what other evidence exists that Marquise Goodwin is an unbelievable value and a great fantasy outlook? First, he is officially the fastest player in the NFL. Not fastest wide receiver, not fastest offensive player; the fastest NFL player. Goodwin is so fast that he won a million dollars for showcasing his speed. Speed succeeds in the NFL, especially on the outside where Marquise Goodwin lives.

Second, Jimmy Garoppolo returns from injury, and Goodwin excels with Garoppolo under the helm. In games played with Garoppolo, Goodwin scores over four more PPR points-per-game.[2]

marquise goodwin splits rotoviz

Still talking health, Goodwin himself is healthy! Last year, he only played 11 games and left early in at least two of those games. Additionally, health likely limited him in more games because he dealt with a calf injury that forced him out of the starting lineup after week 10. Considering those limitations, I think it’s fair to evaluate his 23 catches/395 yards/4 TDs 2018 performance with a grain of salt.

But here is the kicker: The 2018 WR66’s (Tre’Quan Smith) stats were: 28 Receptions, 427 yards, 5 TDs, and 72.7 fantasy points. Even 2018 WR50’s (Doug Baldwin) stats were: 50 receptions, 618 yards, 5 TDs, and 91.8 fantasy points. Therefore, all it would take for Goodwin to return value is to catch 30 balls, 500 yards, and 5 touchdowns. Goodwin can do that in his sleep. Therefore, Goodwin will undoubtedly out-produce WR50 numbers simply due to opportunity.

But I understand; you need a fantasy starter, not just a guy who beats his ridiculously low ADP. Even so, I think we can expect much, much more than WR50 numbers from Goodwin. Indeed, Goodwin’s pace with Garoppolo is 72 receptions, 984 yards, 4 Touchdowns, and 198 fantasy points. Those numbers would have been good for WR22, despite the low TD amount.

In summary, I think you can find WR2 numbers from a WR drafted in the 14th round. You cannot beat that value! Goodwin presents a unique skillset, world-class speed, and plays for a strong offense guided by an above-average quarterback. To me, those are more than good enough reasons to believe in Marquise Goodwin and his fantasy outlook. Draft him everywhere you can! Don’t forget to check out The Fantasy Authority’s rankings to see where we have Goodwin for 2019.

[1] By the way, if you’d like to chat with me or any other TFA writers and community, please check out this link! We are building an interactive community, and we want to hear your feedback!

[2] Credit to Rotoviz.com for the data pulled using their Game Splits Tool.

Click to comment

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

More in Redraft