Nailing your mid-round fantasy picks provides you a huge advantage throughout the season and is key to winning a fantasy football championship. How do we do that? Average Draft Position (ADP) is one of the most important numbers for fantasy players to consider at this time of year. Fantasy analyst rankings are nice, projections are a fun objective exercise, and tiers are oh-so-important. Getting “your guys” is only impressive if you got them at the right price. Please read the first article in this series to see exactly why!
I provide a list of players I love at their ADP. I view each of them as values and players I would be targeting. My example provides all twelve guys in each round and a short analysis of why I love the player I chose. In every round, I like these players because of their ADP represents a discount. I wrote about Rounds 1-4 earlier in the week, so be sure to check out that article!
|49||Kyler Murray ARI (8)||QB6|
|50||Tyler Lockett SEA (6)||WR21|
|51||Zach Ertz PHI (9)||TE4|
|52||DeVante Parker MIA (11)||WR22|
|53||Robert Woods LAR (9)||WR23|
|54||Le’Veon Bell NYJ (11)||RB21|
|55||Stefon Diggs BUF (11)||WR24|
|56||James Conner PIT (8)||RB22|
|57||D’Andre Swift DET (5)||RB23|
|58||Mark Ingram II BAL (8)||RB24|
|59||D.J. Chark JAC (7)||WR25|
|60||Raheem Mostert SF (11)||RB25|
There is a lot to like in Round 5 this year. I could probably write an entire article about the value we can find here. I love the value D.J. Chark, Robert Woods, and Tyler Lockett provide at their respective ADP. But, give me some Raheem Mostert.
Right now, his ADP is still depressed because of the offseason trade demand. Leverage that! Mostert was RB9 from weeks 11-17, a stretch of the season that corresponded with Matt Breida being injured. Now, Breida is now a Dolphin. Furthermore, Mostert plays in the best running system in the league, and Kyle Shanahan gets fantasy points for his running backs. Yes, there is a possibility that Jerrick McKinnon returns, but I worry about McKinnon hurting Mostert about as much as I worry about Jeff Wilson Jr. hurting Mostert. As long as he stays healthy, Mostert will be a top 15 RB this year, and ADP has him at RB25. Yes, please!
|61||Devin Singletary BUF (11)||RB26|
|62||David Montgomery CHI (11)||RB27|
|63||Cam Akers LAR (9)||RB28|
|64||Darren Waller LV (6)||TE5|
|65||Terry McLaurin WAS (8)||WR26|
|66||A.J. Green CIN (9)||WR27|
|67||Josh Allen BUF (11)||QB7|
|68||T.Y. Hilton IND (7)||WR28|
|69||Jarvis Landry CLE (9)||WR29|
|70||Michael Gallup DAL (10)||WR30|
|71||Deebo Samuel SF (11)||WR31|
|72||Tyler Boyd CIN (9)||WR32|
Is there anyone after Round 3 with more guaranteed touches than David Montgomery? Last year, Montgomery handled 242 carries, which is only about 20 fewer than Leonard Fournette, who is being drafted in Round 3! Also, Montgomery saw more targets in 2019 than Josh Jacobs, a player many are projecting to receive a larger target share in 2020. And here’s the kicker – David Montgomery received 14 carries from inside the 5-yard line, fourth-most in the NFL last season. So, what gives?
Alas, Montgomery was very inefficient last year, and the Chicago offense is nothing to write home about. But still, in Round 6, you get the opportunity to draft a player essentially guaranteed for 250 carries and 40 targets. Only 8 players in 2019 received 250 or more carries, and all of them finished as RB1s. You can’t often guarantee yourself volume in the 6th round, and you can here. Thus, Montgomery is a clear value.
|73||Kareem Hunt CLE (9)||RB29|
|74||Evan Engram NYG (11)||TE6|
|75||Aaron Rodgers GB (5)||QB8|
|76||Hunter Henry LAC (10)||TE7|
|77||Matt Ryan ATL (10)||QB9|
|78||Marquise Brown BAL (8)||WR33|
|79||Drew Brees NO (6)||QB10|
|80||J.K. Dobbins BAL (8)||RB30|
|81||Carson Wentz PHI (9)||QB11|
|82||Sony Michel NE (6)||RB31|
|83||Rob Gronkowski TB (13)||TE8|
|84||Julian Edelman NE (6)||WR34|
Marquise Brown is getting a lot of hype, and has nice value as WR33 in ADP, but let’s focus on Julian Edelman, last year’s WR10. I understand the hesitancy on Edelman given that Tom Brady is no longer throwing him the ball, but Cam Newton can absolutely sustain a WR or two for fantasy purposes. Plus, Edelman doesn’t really have any competition for targets. N’Keal Harry is an exciting prospect, but practically untested. Edelman offers you a safe floor, which is exactly what I want when drafting in the 7th round. Edelman is an especially nice pick here if you are shooting for the moon at WR earlier, with the likes of A.J. Brown, Terry McLaurin, or Calvin Ridley.
|85||Ronald Jones II TB (13)||RB32|
|86||Brandin Cooks HOU (8)||WR35|
|87||Ke’Shawn Vaughn TB (13)||RB33|
|88||Jordan Howard MIA (11)||RB34|
|89||CeeDee Lamb DAL (10)||WR36|
|90||Kerryon Johnson DET (5)||RB35|
|91||Austin Hooper CLE (9)||TE9|
|92||Tom Brady TB (13)||QB12|
|93||Marlon Mack IND (7)||RB36|
|94||Jared Cook NO (6)||TE10|
|95||Jerry Jeudy DEN (8)||WR37|
|96||Tyler Higbee LAR (9)||TE11|
When it comes to Round 8, ADP shows a lot of drafters starting to get nervous about filling their onesie positions (TE/QB). Don’t fall for that trap! You can wait even longer on TE and QB, not just because you can stream the position far easier, but mostly because there is great value to be had even later, which I will highlight in my final article in this series.
I don’t love the RB/WR options in this round, and there are guys I like more in round 9, but Ronald Jones is still a starting RB being drafted in Round 8. Are there question marks? Of course, but I still like the upside here. Nevertheless, you can afford to be wrong in Round 8. If it turns out that Jones is a sub-40% snap player, you’ll know immediately. Take the shot here, and drop him if you’re wrong. But his upside is a top 20 RB purchased at a supreme discount.