Week 1 Buy Low, Sell High
We all know that drafting is probably the most important thing you do in fantasy sports. We do our research, look ourselves in the mirror, and make our own judgments on who we believe in the most. Drafting well can also lead to many trade possibilities throughout the season. Just like a real NFL team, we should be trying to put together the most talented, high upside roster as possible. One might overload at one position knowing full well that their roster cannot carry them all season. This lends itself to looking at another team’s apparent weakness at the position and using that to gain leverage to obtain a high upside player at their own position of need. Knowing when to sell players at their highest values while being able to buy players at a low value is crucial to turning your solid team into championship material. The time is now: Week 1 buy low, sell high here we go!
At this juncture of the season, it can be difficult to forecast future success. There is a certain amount of risk involved with making moves this early. Having said that, fortune favors the bold. Now may be the only time you get a shot at a certain player for a reasonable price.
This one may be obvious to some but you never know. Andrew Luck has finished in the top 5 three times already in his career and will open the season on the bench. Some owners will be willing to part with the injured QB to improve a position of weakness. Andrew Luck just started throwing again this week after an offseason shoulder surgery in January. With the awful defense he has been dealt, look for Luck to “chuck” upon his return and make sure that you are the on to reap the benefits.
I know, I know, anyone with the nickname “Fat Rob” should never be trusted to produce big numbers in fantasy, but hear me out. He is playing in an offense where the talent on the outside is plentiful and the tight end when healthy, is one the top receiving tight ends in the league. This eliminates the idea of 8-man boxes for Kelley to deal with. Add in that he was RB14 after taking over in week 8. Jordan Reed was injured throughout most of that time or I’m convinced Kelley would have done even more damage. He was drafted as a back-end RB2 but his floor is RB2 with a high-end ceiling.
Kevin White was an absolute specimen coming into the NFL. At 6’3″ and 216 pounds and happens to run a 4.35 40 yard dash, you could imagine why he was the 7th pick in the 2015 draft. He does bring some injury risk as he has missed 12 games last year with a broken fibula. That injury heals nicely however and with the season-ender suffered by Cameron Meredith, White is the new number 1 in Chicago in an offense that figures to trail a bunch. He could be acquired now for a very modest price but in 3 or 4 weeks, not so much.
Quarterbacks don’t typically get drafted before the 3rd round in most leagues so this one is a bit tougher to predict. Carr gets the nod here due to the fact that he is still relatively unproven as far as longevity in the league goes. He is off to a great start with 80 career TDs already but look at his schedule. He faces the Broncos, Chiefs, and much improved Chargers defense twice. Carr also faces the New York Giants and has a playoff matchup at Philly, in December. That is not a great place to be when deciding a fantasy league title. Most people won’t give up a lot for a QB but it would be worth a shot to find out.
Shady McCoy was probably expected to be your every-week RB1 right? I can’t say that I blame you given the fact he finished 3rd last year despite missing a pair of games to injury. I used the supporting cast argument in my Buy Low section with Rob Kelley and I want to bring into play here. The Bills have punted the 2017 season, and it’s only 1st down. Their barrage of trades and transactions leave an offense that will be a shell of itself. Mix in the fact that there is a new offensive coordinator in town who won’t be quite so run heavy, and it is hard to envision any repeat of past success for McCoy.
He will most assuredly face loaded boxes throughout the game. He also faces the NFC South which is loaded with high-powered offenses. look for the Bills to be forced to throw late in games thus hurting Shady’s volume. These factors give McCoy a high-bust potential and right now might be the only time to get good value for him.
It is a passing league. We all know it and I believe Cooks will have some big games. I also believe that past behavior is an indicator of future decisions. It has always been a goal of mine to never own a Patriots running back or receiver just because you never know if that player will be featured in the game plan week in and week out. The Patriots truly adjust their scripts weekly and will play the matchups. Cooks will see some 10-plus target games, but also some very low numbers as well. Cooks finished 8th overall last year in a pass heavy offense. Therefore, he would make an attractive carrot to dangle on the trade block.
There is a certain amount of risk involved with all of these moves. It all depends on the depth of your fantasy team. If you are like me and draft for value rather than positional need, trading this early in the year is always a consideration.
Even if you can’t pull off a trade, you can still check out who to stream for the week, here.