Kerryon Johnson had an RB1 finish with LeGarrette Blount and Theo Riddick active week 10, Nick Chubb broke out with over 175 rushing yards in a Browns win and Corey Davis resurfaced fantasy radars with a 7-125-1 stat line.
With week 10 in the books, let’s see what all of this, and more, means for week 11, and moving forward.
Kerryon Johnson, Nick Chubb comfortable RB2s Rest-Of-Season
With Theo Riddick back, Johnson paced the Detriot backfield in touches with 20 touches (14 carries, six catches). Riddick had six catches on seven targets, while LeGarrette Blount had six carries. With Riddick out week 7, Johnson had his season-high 21 touches in a game.
Late in the fourth quarter with the Lions chasing points, Johnson was in the no-huddle, opposed to Riddick. At one point in time, Johnson hauled in three straight catches on consecutive plays for the Lions. More importantly, Johnson paced Blount in red zone carries 4-2, converting one for a one-yard touchdown.
Johnson’s elusive rating is 12th among backs with at least 100 carries, while his yards-after-contact (min. 100 attempts) ranks seventh. Johnson gets the Panthers at home this week, who’ve allowed an average of 104 rushing yards on the road in four contests.
Chubb, on the other hand, has had at least 18 carries in every start (11 red zone carries in that span), with no less than 65 rushing yards and three touchdowns in four games. In addition, Chubb has averaged a catch per game, and Chubb has posted three RB2 finishes and an RB3 finish.
Chubb owners want to see him catch more passes, but the 11 red zone carries is a good sign when the Browns are close they’ll hand it off to Chubb. Consider Chubb a little more touchdown dependent than Johnson. But, Chubbs’ explosiveness (had a 92-yard rushing touchdown last week) should keep him in the RB2 discussion with yardage alone most weeks (about 100 total yards and 3-4 catches).
Is Vance McDonald Or Jesse James The Fantasy-Relevant Steelers TE?
Since the week 7 bye, while James has played more, McDonald has run 50 routes to James’ 34, had 13 targets (one red zone) to James’ seven (one red zone) and has hauled in 10 catches for 116 yards and a touchdown compares to James’ five catches for 70 yards and a touchdown. McDonald has had one TE1 finish, opposed to zero for James.
McDonald is the Steelers TE you want for fantasy. Mcdonald faces the Jaguars this week, who’ve allowed at least five catches and 50 yards or a touchdown to TEs in three of five home games, albeit one was played in London (against the Eagles). In addition, the Jaguars just allowed three touchdowns to the Colts’ TEs last week.
Don’t Trust John Ross Against The Ravens This Week
Obviously, with Ross, all it takes is one play. So, I could end up eating crow on this one. But with A.J. Green out and the Bengals in pass mode for the majority of this contest, Ross had just six targets (2-39-1), while Tyler Boyd had four (3-65).
With the Ravens having three above-average outside cornerbacks, this matchup sets up well for a bounce-back game for slot receiver Boyd. In their first matchup, Boyd and Green split time in the slot. The result was Boyd posting a 6-91-1 stat line. Expect Boyd and Alex Erickson to split time in the slot with Ross on the outside.
Ravens cornerback Jimmy Smith has allowed just 15 catches on 21 targets for 209 yards and a touchdown since returning to the lineup week 5 (an average of 3 catches for less than 45 receiving yards a game). Fellow corner Brandon Carr has allowed 23 catches on 43 targets for 330 yards and zero touchdowns in nine games (an average of less than three catches a game for less than 45 receiving yards a game).
The Ravens defense has allowed a receiving touchdown in back-to-back home games, but Ross isn’t the same caliber receiver as Mike Thomas and Antonio Brown.
Tre’Quan Smith Is A Dart Throw Flex This Week Against A Depleted Eagles Secondary And Six Teams On Bye
Smith had zero targets last week and the Saints signed Brandon Marshall Monday. That said, the Eagles just lost Ronald Darby, weren’t good defending the pass before that and Smith is the most explosive non-Michael Thomas receiver on the Saints’ roster.
The Eagles have allowed a receiving touchdown in three of four road games, including two games of allowing two or more (to the Bucs and Titans).
Leonard Fournette Is A RB1 Rest-Of-Season As Long As He’s Healthy
Fournette had 24 carries (four red zone) to go with five targets (5-56-1) in his return to the Jacksonville backfield. While his 24 carries for 53 yards wasn’t impressive, Fournette converted one of his red zone carries for a one-yard touchdown and was active in the passing game (less than 35 catches last season in 13 games). The combination of Carlos Hyde and T.J. Yeldon had just 11 touches.
While the matchup isn’t great for Fournette this week against the Steelers, the Pittsburgh unit has allowed a rushing touchdown in three of four road games. Fournette should have an opportunity to convert another red zone carry.
Sell High On Eric Ebron
Ebron had three touchdowns on four touches (three catches, one carry) week 10. In addition, Ebron ran 12 routes playing on 36.5 percent of snaps.
Since returning from injury, fellow TE Jack Doyle has played more than Ebron, has run 39 routes to Ebron’s 22, paced Ebron in targets 10-6 and catches 9-6 and both have 106 receiving yards. Maybe you can trade Ebron for Doyle, but Doyle’s on track to sustain production once he starts converting opportunities. Ebron’s efficiency will be hard to sustain, moving forward.
Marquez Valdes-Scantling A Must-Start If Cobb’s Out This Week, WR3 If Cobb’s Active
With Cobb out week 10, Valdes-Scantling was second in all major receiving categories among receivers for the Packers. Valdes-Scantling played on 96.2 percent of snaps, ran 21 routes and caught six-of-seven targets for 44 yards. The seven targets actually tied Davante Adams. Cobb and Jimmy Graham were non-participants in Green Bay’s Monday practice, as they play the Seahawks on a short week during TNF. The Seahawks have allowed a receiving touchdown in back-to-back home games, including two in their most recent against the Chargers.
Matchup and opportunity are pointing up for Valdes-Scantling this week.
Stash Josh Adams Off Waivers
During the past two games, Adams has rushing stat lines of 7-61 and 7-47 (three red zone carries in that span), including one catch for six yards. Adams has led the Eagles in rushing the last two games and Doug Pederson said that he’d get more opportunity moving forward during his weekly press conference. For PPR, Adams has to get going in the passing game. But for now, Adams is worth a stash. Hopefully, his extra opportunity will mean more red zone carries and/or catches. Either would put Adams on the fantasy radar as a flex.
Start The Opposing Defense Against The Raiders Every Week
In the last five weeks, the defense facing the Raiders has scored at least 11 fantasy points in four of the last five (two games at home, two on the road). More importantly, it hasn’t been because of touchdowns. In that span, the Raiders offense have allowed 21 sacks, an interception and five fumble recoveries (five lost fumbles). Those defenses have been the Chargers (twice), the Seahawks and Niners. So, even average defenses can thrive against the Raiders.
The Cardinals and Ravens face the Raiders in the next two weeks, respectively.
Is Their A Rams Receiver To Add With Cooper Kupp Out For Season?
No. In the three games that Kupp missed earlier in the season, Reynolds ran 52 routes, had eight targets (three red zone) and converted said targets into five catches, albeit two touchdowns, for 59 receiving yards. Pass. Robert Woods and Brandin Cooks should see a slight tick in targets, in addition to Todd Gurley, though.
Leave Maurice Harris, Josh Docston On Waivers If You Didn’t Already Claim Them
Harris followed up his breakout game with a 5-52 receiving stat line on five targets, while Doctson scored in back-to-back games with a score in week 10. Well, the last two games have been great matchups for the Washingon receivers, while the Houston Texans in week 11 pose a serious threat to both receivers in coverage.
Slot corners Aaron Colvin and Kareem Jackson have combined to allow 27 catches on 38 targets for 286 receiving yards and zero touchdowns. In addition, the Texans defense has allowed a receiving touchdown in three of four home games. But, the unit kept Miami receivers out of the end zone in their last home contest. In two other home contests, the Texans defense held all Cowboys receivers to 14.6 fantasy points and held all Buffalo receivers to 21 fantasy points in back-t0-back weeks.
Per Next Gen Stats, Docston’s separation is ninth-lowest at 2.2 yards, below the 2.8 league average. Maurice Harris sits at 3.3 yards. But, Jamison Crowder could be back this week, too.
Buy Low On Corey Davis
Davis resurfaced week 10, after breaking out week 4, with his second 100-yard game of the season. Davis had a 7-125-1 receiving stat line. More importantly, he accomplished said feat against one of the top corners in the league, Stephen Gilmore.
It appears Marcus Mariota is finally healthy, Titans OC Matt Lafleur has found his stride and Davis is in for a big second half of the season. Per Next Gen Stats, Davis’ separation is 3 yards, above the league average of 2.8. In addition, Davis is 16th in the league in targets (with 76), his average intended air yards per target is 10.1 and Davis accounts for 42.26 percent of the Titans’ air yards (third among receivers). As he converts more of his targets, Davis’ catch rate will go up. But, the second-year receiver is 22nd in the league in receiving yards already with 576.
Look out for our weekly waiver wire column to see who you should add before Waiver Wednesday.