After a rough week in week 9, we got back on the right track in week 10 with a 58% hit rate! WOOHOO!
Onto week 11. Like week 9, week 11 also has six teams on bye. I am referring to this week as “Bye Week Armaggedon 2: Electric Boogaloo”. Many of you will be looking for streaming options this week and you have come to the right place. So let us get on with it. Here are your starts and sits for week 11!
Dak Prescott @ Atlanta Falcons
Dak had a great game in week 10 against the Philadelphia Eagles, throwing for 270 yards and one touchdown and adding another on the ground. In fact, Dak has actually been a QB1 the last five weeks. He has 21 or more points in five of his last six games as well. Dak now has a true WR1 as well after the Cowboys traded for wide receiver Amari Cooper.
In week 11, Dak has the best matchup he has seen in the 2018 season. The Falcons have allowed the third-most fantasy points per game to quarterbacks. They have allowed over 21 points to every starting quarterback they have faced except the Eagles’ Nick Foles in week 1. This list includes Eli Manning, Alex Smith, and Andy Dalton. The Falcons rank 29th in DVOA against the pass as well. They have also allowed the fourth most points in the league.
Dak has been playing better of late and he faces a bad Falcons defense. Start Dak with confidence.
Baltimore Ravens Quarterback vs. Cincinnati Bengals
There is a question on who is going to be starting the Ravens week 11 game against the Bengals. Joe Flacco is nursing a hip injury and there are rumors about both rookie Lamar Jackson and Robert Griffen III starting. Regardless of who starts, the Ravens have the most passing attempts in the league. Volume is king in fantasy football.
Whoever starts at quarterback for the Ravens also has a great matchup. The Bengals have allowed the most fantasy points per game to quarterbacks this season. Their fewest allowed fantasy points were in week 5 to Ryan Tannehill with 15. The Bengals have allowed over 19 fantasy points in every other game this season. This includes 27.6 fantasy points to Flacco in week 2. More relevant to Jackson and RGIII, the Bengals have allowed the seventh-most rushing yards to quarterbacks. O, and the Bengals just fired their defensive coordinator, Teryl Austin.
Deshaun Watson @ Washington Redskins
This may seem like a “DUH!” start. But, believe it or not, Watson has only been a low-end QB1 this season. He has also had a few games of less than 17 fantasy points. Watson also has five games of over 25 fantasy points this season. He also has zero interceptions over his last three games. Watson will have a more integrated Demaryius Thomas alongside DeAndre Hopkins. He might have Keke Coutee back as well.
Washington at one point was thought to have a stingy defense. That has not been true of late, specifically against the pass. Over the last five weeks, Washington has allowed the sixth-most fantasy points per game to opposing quarterbacks. In four of the last five games, they have allowed over 23 fantasy points to quarterbacks, with the fifth being 19.8 to Eli Manning.
Playing better and with a fully healthy receiving corp, expect Watson to excel in week 11.
Derek Carr @ Arizona Cardinals
Carr ranks QB30 in fantasy points per game. While he has not been good all season, Carr has been especially bad in his last four games. It does not help that head coach Jon Gruden is blowing up the team, including trading Carr’s best weapon in wide receiving Amari Cooper. Since the Amari Cooper trade, Carr has produced less than 13 fantasy points in two of the three games.
It does not get any better in week 11. The Cardinals have one of the top pass defenses in the league. They rank fifth in DVOA against the pass. The Cardinals defense only allows 223 yards per game through the air, the fourth-fewest in the league. Finally, the Cardinals allow the second-fewest fantasy points per game to quarterbacks.
A bad offense versus a good defense makes Carr an obvious sit.
Andy Dalton @ Baltimore Ravens
Despite a plus matchup in week 10, Dalton and the Bengals offense looked terrible. The New Orleans Saints have allowed the second-most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks. Despite going down big early, Dalton only managed to throw for 153 yards and one touchdown. He also threw two interceptions. Some of Dalton’s struggles can be attributed to his star wide receiver AJ Green out due to a toe injury. Those struggles may continue with Green possibly missing several more games.
The Bengals week 11 opponent definitely does not help Dalton’s prospects. The Ravens have one of the best defenses in the league thus far. They rank seventh in DVOA against the pass and fifth against the run. The Ravens have allowed the sixth-fewest fantasy points per game to quarterbacks. They also allow the fewest yards per game and the second-fewest points per game.
Even with Green, this would be a tough matchup for Dalton. Without him, Dalton is definitely a sit.
Alex Smith vs. Houston Texans
Alex Smith is the definition of a mediocre quarterback. After a wildly successful 2017 season, Smith has crashed back down to earth in 2018. Smith ranks as the QB31 in fantasy points per game this season. In his last five games, Smith has broken 20 points once and scored less than 15 points three times. Washington has won on the backs of the defense and Adrian Peterson. They have on despite Smith.
The Texans have allowed the seventh-fewest fantasy points per game to quarterbacks. In the last five weeks, they have allowed the third-fewest. In those five weeks, they did not allow a starting quarterback to break 20 points. The Texans allow the seventh-fewest points per game while Washington scores the sixth-fewest.
Washington will need to rely on defense to win this game. Smith is a must-sit.
Alex Collins vs. Cincinnati Bengals
Many of the reasons to start Collins can be found under the reasons to start the Ravens quarterback. The Bengals defense is awful. Not only have they allowed the most fantasy points per game to quarterbacks, but the Bengals are also allowing the second-most fantasy points per game to running backs. The Bengals are also struggling with injuries, with four linebackers on the injury report.
Currently the RB22 in fantasy points per game, Collins has been startable most weeks in 2018. He has six double-digit fantasy days and has scored over seven fantasy points in every game this season. Collins also has double-digit carries in 6-of-9 games this season.
With possibly a new starter at quarterback, the Ravens will likely lean on Collins to drive the offense. He is a good start regardless against a bad Bengals defense.
Phillip Lindsay @ Los Angeles Chargers
Lindsay has been a phenomenon this season. Going undrafted, the Denver Broncos rookie has arguably been the second-best rookie running back in the league. Lindsay is the RB21 in fantasy points per game in 2018. He has eclipsed double-digit fantasy points in all but one game this season. Lindsay has been extremely consistent and reliable. He has shown ability both rushing and receiving.
The Chargers have actually been good on defense this season. They rank eighth in DVOA against the pass and 15th against the run. The last five weeks, however, the Chargers have allowed the 12th-most fantasy points per game to running backs. They have also allowed the second-most receiving yards to running backs in those five weeks.
The Broncos will likely need to throw to keep up with the relatively high-powered offense of the Chargers. With Lindsay involved in both facets of the game, he is a good start this week.
Dion Lewis @ Indianapolis Colts
Many thought that last week was a Dion Lewis week. Unfortunately, it was a Derrick Henry, much to the dismay of those who have Lewis rostered. The previous two weeks, however, Lewis produced over 20 fantasy points. On the season, Lewis is the RB24.
Week 11 should be a Dion Lewis week. The Colts have allowed the 10th-most fantasy points per game to running backs. The Colts have been particularly susceptible to pass-catching running backs, ranking 28th in DVOA against running backs in coverage. They have allowed the third-most receptions and fourth-most receiving yards to running backs.
Lewis has caught 35 passes this season. He will likely be heavily involved in week 11.
Marlon Mack vs. Tennessee Titans
After back-to-back games of nearly 30 fantasy points, Mack put up a dud against the Jacksonville Jaguars in week 10. Finally regaining his health, Mack has shown what many saw when he was coming out of college. But, he ran into a Jaguars defense that has allowed the third-fewest fantasy points per game to running backs.
Unfortunately, Mack gets another difficult matchup in week 11. The Titans rank eighth in DVOA against the run. They have allowed the second-fewest fantasy points per game to running backs. The Titans also rank fifth against running backs in coverage. So not only can they stop running backs on the ground, allowing the 12th-fewest rushing yards, but through the air as well, allowing the eighth-fewest receptions.
The Titans defense has gotten progressively better through the season. Mack faces them at the wrong time. Sit him.
Doug Martin/Jalen Richard @ Arizona Cardinals
See: Carr, Derek. The Raiders offense is awful. Since taking over the starting running back role after Marshawn Lynch was put on IR, Martin has averaged 83 total yards from scrimmage. He has averaged just over 10 fantasy points per game. Richard, meanwhile, has been relatively serviceable as the pass-catching back. Richard has the fifth-most receptions among running backs in 2018. He has double-digit fantasy points in 6-of-9 games this season.
The Cardinals have actually been relatively poor this season against running backs. They have allowed the fifth-most fantasy points per game to running backs this season. The last five weeks, however, the Cardinals defense has been much more stout against running backs. In the last five weeks, the Cardinals have allowed the fifth-fewest fantasy points per game to running backs.
While the Cardinals have not been good against running backs this season, they have been much better of late. The Raiders offense is bad and the Cardinals should be able to stop Martin and Richard.
Adrian Peterson vs. Houston Texans
Peterson has been one of the surprise stories of the 2018 season. Peterson ranks as the RB15 in fantasy points per game. That number is deceiving however. Peterson has had an up and down season. Peterson has four double-digit games, including three games of 24 fantasy points or more. In the other five games, Peterson has scored less than 10 points. IN the last two games, Peterson has 102 total yards from scrimmage against two bad defenses in the Atlanta Falcons and Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Washington has also lost two All-Pro offensive linemen and a rookie offensive lineman for the season.
As mentioned above, the Texans defense has been great this season. They have been especially good against the run. The Texans rank first overall in DVOA against the run. Against running backs in coverage, the Texans rank third in DVOA. They have allowed the 11th-fewest fantasy points per game to running backs on the season and the ninth-fewest in the last five weeks.
Facing a good defense against the run with a patchwork offensive line, Peterson is a sit-in week 11.
Alshon Jeffery @ New Orleans Saints
Since returning in week 4 from offseason shoulders surgery, Jeffery has picked up where he left off last season. In his first game back, Jeffery produced 24.5 fantasy points. On the season, he has produced three games of over 20 fantasy points. He ranks as the WR19 on the season.
Jeffery faces a Saints defense that has been extremely poor against the pass. In terms of DVOA, the Saints rank 28th against the pass. They rank 31st in DVOA against WR1s and WR2s. The Saints have allowed the most fantasy points per game to wide receivers on the season. They have allowed 18 receivers to produce double-digit fantasy games in nine games.
In a game that the Eagles will need to throw to keep up with the Saints combined with a bad Saints secondary, Jeffery is a good start in week 11.
Amari Cooper @ Atlanta Falcons
After an up and down season, and really career, with the Oakland Raiders, a change of scenery may have been just what Cooper needed. Since being traded to the Cowboys, Cooper has combined for 18 targets, 11 receptions, 133 yards and one touchdown in two games. He produced double-digit fantasy points in both games.
The Falcons secondary has already been talked about above under Dak Prescott. The Falcons have allowed the fourth-most fantasy points to wide receivers. They rank 30th in DVOA against WR1s as well.
An improved Cowboys passing attack versus a bad Falcons secondary equates to a good fantasy day for Cooper.
John Brown vs. Cincinnati Bengals
“Smokey” has been a nice little surprise as well this season. After a disappointing and/or injury-riddled season with the Arizona Cardinals, Brown finally seems to have found a home. In his first four games, Brown produced four double-digit fantasy games. Over the past five, however, he only has one. The good news is that Brown faces the Bengals, who, in week 2, Brown produced 92 yards and a touchdown. Since that game, the Bengals have gotten significantly worse on defense.
I have already discussed how poor the Bengals are on defense. There is no need to beat a dead horse. Regardless of who is throwing the ball for the Ravens in week 11, Brown is a good start.
Allen Robinson vs. Minnesota Vikings
Robinson finally showed a glimpse of what we saw in 2015 and what fantasy players were expecting. Against the Detroit Lions in week 10, Robinson caught 6-of-8 targets for 133 yards and two touchdowns. While Robinson’s 2018 season has not been bad, it has not been what many have expected. Robinson ranks as the WR26 in fantasy points per game. He has five double-digit games in seven.
Robinson likely will not have the same type of game against the Vikings. The Vikings rank 10th in DVOA against the pass. Against WR1s, they rank first in DVOA. On the season, the Vikings have allowed the fourth-fewest fantasy points to wide receivers. In the last five weeks, they have allowed the fewest fantasy points per game.
The Vikings defense is good. The Chicago Bears offense is good. Robinson will likely be covered a majority of the time by star cornerback Xavier Rhodes. Quarterback Mitch Trubisky will have to look at his other myriad of targets. Sit Allen Robinson.
Tyler Boyd @ Baltimore Ravens
Boyd has had a breakout season in 2018. He is currently the WR16 on the season. Boyd has eclipsed 20 fantasy points in 5-of-9 games this season. Without A.J. Green, however, Boyd had a mediocre game in week 10 against a bad New Orleans Saints secondary. Is this a trend? We cannot tell after one game. But, the Bengals offense looked terrible against a bad Saints defense.
In week 11, Boyd and the Bengals do not have the same luxury of a bad defense. The Ravens have allowed the fifth-fewest fantasy points per game to wide receivers. The Ravens did not have their best cornerback in Jimmy Smith in their week 2 matchup against the Bengals, either.
The Bengals are a flailing team and they have a difficult matchup in week 11. Boyd is a sit this week.
Maurice Harris vs. Houston Texans
See: Smith, Alex. The entire Washington passing attack is mediocre at best. They are mostly hindered by the quarterback. While Harris is the de facto leading receiver, that does not amount to much. I do not trust anyone except Chris Thompson in this passing game.
This is especially true against the Texans. I have already talked about how good the Texans defense has been. On the season, the Texans have allowed the fifth-fewest fantasy points per game to wide receivers.
Bad passing offense. Good defense. Bad matchup for Harris.
Ricky Seals-Jones vs. Oakland Raiders
RSJ has not had a good season to date, ranking as the TE32. He only has three double-digit games and only one touchdown. This despite averaging over five targets per game. With a new offensive coordinator, however, things are looking up. RSJ received nine targets and 51 yards in week 10.
The Cardinals face a poor Oakland defense in week 11. The Raiders rank last in the league in DVOA against tight ends in coverage. They have allowed the fifth-most fantasy points per game to tight ends. In the past five weeks, the Raiders have allowed the third-most fantasy points per game.
The Raiders are bad against tight ends. The Cardinals have a new, better offense. Start RSJ.
Evan Engram vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Engram made my list last week as a sit. He is hindered by quarterback Eli Manning. Engram ranks as the TE19 on the season.
However, in week 11, Engram has a plus matchup. The Buccaneers rank 28th in DVOA against tight ends in coverage. They have allowed the second-most fantasy points per game to tight ends.
The Buccaneers defense can make any teams passing game look good. This time it is Engram’s and the New York Giants’ turn.
Mark Andrews vs. Cincinnati Bengals
This one is a bit risky. The Ravens have given four tight ends significant snaps this season. However, Andrews is the leader amongst them in targets and is fourth on the team in yards. Against the Bengals in week 2, Andrews had his best game.
Here we are again, talking about how bad the Bengals defense is. By the way, they gave up 51! points to the Saints in week 10. Against tight ends, the Bengals have allowed the third-most fantasy points per game. Seems about par for the course.
With six teams on bye, you may be looking for a tight end streamer. Andrews has a good chance to break double-digits.
Ben Watson vs. Philadelphia Eagles
Watson has his games. This season, Watson has three double-digit games. He currently ranks as the TE20 on the season, however. With three better options ahead of him, he does not seem to be a priority in the Saints offense.
The Eagles secondary is in shambles right now with injuries. However, they have been good against tight ends. The Eagles rank second in DVOA against tight ends in coverage. They have allowed the third-fewest fantasy points per game to tight ends.
The Eagles are more susceptible to being beaten by wide receivers with the current state of their secondary. Michael Thomas will get his, Alvin Kamara will get his, Tre’Quan Smith may see some work as well. That does not leave much for Watson in a bad matchup.
Jimmy Graham @ Seattle Seahawks
My guys over at Father-Son Fantasy Football Podcast (@FatherSonFF) will not like this. Graham has been a bit of a disappointment this season. He currently ranks as TE13 in fantasy points per game. Many thought he would be a touchdown magnet with Aaron Rodgers. Graham only has two touchdowns on the season. Graham also only saw one target in week 10 against the Miami Dolphins.
The Seahawks defense, though no longer the “Legion of Boom” has been very good this season. They rank sixth in DVOA against the pass. They have allowed sixth-fewest fantasy points per game to tight ends in 2018.
Despite the “revenge game” narrative, Graham is not a good play this week.
Eric Ebron vs. Tennessee Titans
One more controversial player on the list. Ebron has been awesome this season, despite low snap counts. Ebron has been everything the Detroit Lions wanted him to be when they drafted him in the first round of the 2014 draft. He ranks as the TE3 on the season. He has 10 touchdowns on the season and is on pace to break Rob Gronkowski’s tight end touchdown record. Ebron caught two touchdowns on three targets and ran for another touchdown in week 10. All despite playing in only 38% of the snaps. In games where fellow tight end Jack Doyle plays, the maximum snaps share Ebron has seen was 45% in week 1. He cannot possibly keep this efficiency up.
I have talked about the Titans defense above. They have been great of late. Against tight ends, they have rank sixth in DVOA in coverage. In terms of fantasy, the Titans have allowed the fewest fantasy points to tight ends.
While Ebron has been great this season and overly efficient, he faces a Titans defense that does not give up points to tight ends. Sit Ebron in week 11.
And there it is. I hope this helps you all set your lineups. Until next week.
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