Week 13 Running Back Trends
Welcome to Week 13 Running Back Trends. In this article, I will be breaking down the on-going trends with some of the running backs in the NFL. Finding out which players will be continuing their upward trend could be the key to making the playoffs and winning your league. On the other hand, we want to avoid some of the downward trending backs so we don’t nose dive the season and miss the playoffs altogether. It’s the important time of the season to remain vigilant and not get complacent.
Anyway, without further adieu, let’s break down the Week 13 Running Back Trends!
The Eagles Backfield
The Patriots backfield part deux, anyone? Before we start breaking down these running backs, let’s take a look at the touches per week for each member of the Eagles backfield:
Most backfields have at least one guy that they try to get the ball as much as possible. Hell, even the dreaded RBBC Patriots have started to lean on Dion Lewis in recent weeks. In the Eagles case, it’s becoming clear that they have no plans to feature any single back.
In this three week timespan, Blount has led the backfield in rushing attempts with 37. Additionally, there really hasn’t been much-receiving work to go around for any Eagles’ running backs. As for combined yardage during this split, Ajayi leads the pack with 211, Blount has 191, and Clement has 155.
It’s going to be very difficult to predict who will be given the most work on any given Sunday. Since we’re in a playoff mindset, the Eagles have a very favorable schedule weeks 14-16 (Rams 31th against the run, Giants 16th, Raiders 25th). Both Ajayi and Blount could be worth a flex is you are fairly desperate. If you’re swinging for a home run, then Ajayi may still likely be the guy because he has more big-play ability than Blount.
My Projected touches for each Eagles RB going forward:
Blount: 12-14 rushing attempts, 0-1 targets
Ajayi: 8-10 rushing attempts, 1-2 targets
Clement: 4-10 rushing attempts, 0-1 targets
Alvin Kamara RB NO
I already know that I’m going to get stabbed by someone after this section. Alvin Kamara owners, just hear me out. He’s not going to continue his current trends. Let’s take a look at his fantasy points shown over the top of his combined touches per week.
One thing should be very clear while looking at this graph. His opportunity in terms of rushing attempts and receptions (red line) has not particularly increased since week 5. However, he has been producing bucketloads of fantasy points in this same timeframe (blue line). His touch totals have never exceeded 17 in a given week.
With that being said, he has averaged 11.9 touches per game this season, and 13.9 touches per game since week 4. Without a doubt, he’s going to continue to be productive. But you should not be expecting 20+ points every week for the rest of the season. Mark Ingram still continues to be the “lead back” in this tandem. And that will be the same for the rest of this season.
The Saints don’t draw any particularly easy matchups for the rest of the season, either. Luckily Kamara has some excellent receiving chops and averages 4.9 receptions per game. His PPR value will still be fairly solid in the fantasy playoffs.
My Projected touches for Alvin Kamara going forward:
Alvin Kamara: 6-10 rushing attempts, 4-7 receptions per game.
Joe Mixon RB CIN
It’s finally happening! The Bengals are realizing that Joe Mixon is a feature running back! It’s really too bad that their offensive line is in shambles and that the coaching staff is fairly incompetent. Even so, Mixon is starting to get fed the football, and that leads to big weeks like he had week 12 against the Browns. Let’s see how those touches have been trending since the week 6 bye.
There are some promising trends for Mixon recently. The most promising trend is that Mixon has received 20+ rushes in the last two weeks. Additionally, Mixon has been averaging exactly 3 targets per game since the bye. Mixon only has 3 drops on the season on 29 total targets, so you’re likely going to have a 2-3 reception floor each week.
If you watched the game against Cleveland, you would have seen an RB that’s hitting the holes hard and gaining consistent yards between the tackles. Considering the struggles that the Bengals O-line has had this season, it’s nice to finally see gaps that Mixon can take advantage of.
I fully expect the Bengals to get the most out of Mixon for the remainder of the season. With Dalton and the Bengals still clinging on to life in the playoff race, Marvin Lewis will use his key weapons like Mixon and Green to have the best odds of winning out.
My Projected touches for Joe Mixon going forward:
Joe Mixon: 17-20 rushing attempts, 2-3 receptions per game.
So that was Week 13 Running Back Trends, thanks for reading! Keep The Fantasy Authority on your favorites bar, as we have tons of awesome weekly content this season! I’ll be back next week with more stats for you to chew on. You can follow me on Twitter: @CCNP_Kent. Impress your league-mates by grabbing a sleeper a week before he goes off!