Kirk Cousins vs. Miami Dolphins
This may not be much of a surprise. However, Cousins has received a lot of grief over his performance in week 14 against the Seattle Seahawks. Despite poor performances in his last two games, Cousins still ranks as the QB11 on the season. He only has two games of below 19 fantasy points in 2018.
The Dolphins have struggled against the pass this season, ranking 26th in DVOA. They have allowed the most fantasy points per game to quarterbacks over the last five weeks. In five of their last six games, the Dolphins have allowed over 20 fantasy points to quarterbacks, including three games of over 30 fantasy points.
Cousins should be in for a bounce-back game in week 15. Start him.
Nick Mullens vs. Seattle Seahawks
Mullens has been up and down since taking over the San Francisco 49ers starting job. He has four games of over 23 fantasy points and two games below 17 fantasy points. Mullens, however, has produced over 23 fantasy points in his last two. This included against the Seahawks in week 13 when he threw for 414 yards and two touchdowns.
The Seahawks defense has not been awful this season. In fact, they rank 13th in DVOA against the pass. However, the Seahawks have struggled against quarterbacks in the last five weeks. Before week 14, the Seahawks had given up over 24 fantasy points in four straight games in 5-of-6.
Mullens has shown he can throw on the Seahawks and the Seahawks have shown they can be thrown on. Start Mullens in week 15.
Baker Mayfield @ Denver Broncos
Mayfield had his worst fantasy game as a starter in week 14. Against the Carolina Panthers, Mayfield only threw for 238 yards and one touchdown, breaking a four-game streak of over 20 fantasy point games. Since taking over as the starter, Mayfield has produced over 20 fantasy points in 7-of-10 games.
Mayfield should be able to start a new streak in week 15. The Broncos, though they rank second in DVOA against quarterbacks, have given up a lot of fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks over the second half of the season. The Broncos have allowed the eighth-most fantasy points to quarterbacks over the last five weeks. The only quarterback they have held under 22 fantasy points is the Cincinnati Bengals Jeff Driskel in week 13.
Mayfield has been far and away the best rookie quarterback this season. The Broncos have struggled of late against quarterbacks. Start Mayfield.
Ryan Tannehill @ Minnesota Vikings
Tannehill has been decent since returning from injury in week 12. He has thrown for eight touchdowns in three games since his return. This is extremely efficient considering that the maximum amount of passes Tannehill has thrown in a game is 25. He is due for regression.
The Vikings may help that regression in week 15. The Vikings rank eighth in DVOA against the pass. They have allowed the third-fewest fantasy points to quarterbacks over the last five weeks. Only one quarterback has produced more than 20 fantasy points against the Vikings in their last six games and only two in their last eight games.
Tannehill does not throw a lot and the Vikings pass defense is good. Do not expect three touchdowns this week. Sit Tannehill.
Jameis Winston @ Baltimore Ravens
In his two stints as the Tampa Bay Buccaneers starting quarterback, Winston has 19.6 fantasy points in all but one game. He has been very consistent for owners who roster and start him. Winston has over 23 fantasy points in each of his last three games as well.
However, Winston faces a tough test on the road in week 15. The Ravens rank fourth in DVOA against the pass. On the season, the Ravens have allowed the third-fewest fantasy points to quarterbacks. In the last five weeks, they have allowed the seventh-fewest.
The Ravens defense has been good against the pass all season. This will be a tough day for Winston.
Aaron Rodgers @ Chicago Bears
I can hear you, readers, now. “WHAT THE F**K IS HE THINKING?!” I get it. I do not know if anyone can necessarily sit Rodgers. But, let’s be real, Rodgers has not been the same in 2018. While he is the QB10 on the season, we are used to top-three finishes. Rodgers has four games below 20 fantasy points and only two above 30. This also could be due to former head coach Mike McCarthy holding the Packers back. However, Rodgers threw for less than 200 yards against a very poor pass defense in the Atlanta Falcons.
Rodgers faces a much more stingy Chicago Bears defense in week 16. The Bears have been the best defense in the league in 2018, ranking first in DVOA against both the run and the pass. Over the last five weeks, the Bears have allowed the fourth-fewest fantasy points to quarterbacks. In the last three games, they have allowed under 13 fantasy points in each game.
This is not the same Bears defense that Rodgers faced in week 1. While you may not be able to sit Rodgers, I would temper expectations.
Justin Jackson @ Kansas City Chiefs
This is very contingent on if Melvin Gordon plays. If Gordon plays, you do not play Jackson. If Gordon sits, Jackson has a tremendous matchup and will get all of the volume. Ekeler has been ruled out for the Thursday night game. Gordon is unlikely to play. Jackson has been efficient in his limited opportunities, averaging 5.1 yards per carry and 12.2 yards per reception. He should see a tremendous amount of volume as well.
The Chiefs defense as a whole has been awful. Against the run, the Chiefs rank 32nd in DVOA. This season, the Chiefs have allowed the second-most fantasy points to running backs. They are particularly susceptible to pass-catching running backs, allowing the fourth-most receptions and most receiving yards.
In what should be a high scoring game, Jackson is a must-start if Gordon is out.
Doug Martin @ Cincinnati Bengals
This one makes me feel really gross. However, Martin has been a good flex option since taking over as the starting running back. Martin has four double-digit fantasy games since taking over and ranks as the RB28 over the last five weeks. He also has double-digit carries in seven straight games.
Martin faces the worst running defense in the league in terms of fantasy in the Cincinnati Bengals in week 15. The Bengals rank 28th in DVOA against the run. They have allowed the most fantasy points to running backs on the season and in the last five weeks. The Bengals have allowed the most rushing yards as well as the most rushing touchdowns on the season as well.
Martin may seem like a gross streamer, but he will be good for you in week 15.
Damien Williams vs. Los Angeles Chargers
This really should be just “Starting Running Back for the Kansas City Chiefs.” The Chiefs are the highest scoring offense in the league, which gives the running back a lot of opportunities to rack up fantasy points. Chiefs running backs have scored the eighth-most fantasy points on the season. While most of this was due to the now-dismissed Kareem Hunt, Spencer Ware and Williams have combined for three double-digit fantasy games in their last two. Now with Ware out due to a shoulder injury, it is Williams backfield in week 15.
Williams faces a relatively stout Chargers defense. However, the Chargers have allowed the 10th-most fantasy points to running backs in the last five weeks. In their last two games, the Chargers have allowed two running backs to eclipse 20 fantasy points.
Williams will get a significant majority of the backfield work in week 15 for arguably the best offense in the league. Start him.
Marlon Mack vs. Dallas Cowboys
Since posting back-to-back games of over 28 fantasy points, Mack has been a disappointment. He has two double-digit games to three single-digit games. The double-digit games he scored less than 14 fantasy points. In his last two games, Mack has scored a total of 13.6 fantasy points.
Things likely will not get any better in week 15. The Cowboys defense has been a surprise this season. They rank 12th against the pass and fourth against the run in terms of DVOA. The Cowboys defense has allowed the fifth-fewest fantasy points to running backs on the season and the fewest in the last five weeks.
The Cowboys defense is good. Mack has not been so good of late. Sit Mack in week 15.
Elijah McGuire vs. Houston Texans
McGuire had the best game of his season in week 14. Mcguire accumulated 83 yards from scrimmage, three receptions, and one touchdown, finishing with 17.3 fantasy points. He will get another chance to produce big numbers in week 15 with Crowell ruled out with a toe injury.
However, McGuire faces a good Texans run defense. The Texans rank second in DVOA against the run. They have allowed the seventh-fewest fantasy points to running backs on the season and the third-fewest in the last few weeks.
The Jets will likely be playing from behind and will need to throw. The Texans are also very good against the run. Sit McGuire.
Josh Adams @ Los Angeles Rams
In Weeks 11 and 12, Adams produced double-digit fantasy points. Week 13 he ran for 85 yards. Last week he only got seven carries. Darren Sproles out-snapped Adams as well. The Eagles backfield is in a full blow timeshare with Sproles back in the mix and it is hard to trust Adams at this juncture.
It definitely does not help that he is facing the Rams in week 15. Really, this is more about game script than anything. The Rams defense has not been great this season. But the Rams offense has been. The Eagles will likely be playing from behind and there are better pass-catching options in the Eagles backfield.
Robert Foster vs. Detroit Lions
Foster has been on fire of late. He has produced 94 or more receiving yards in three of his last four games. Foster gets another chance to put up good numbers against the Lions in week 15. The Lions rank 31st against the pass in DVOA. They rank 24th against WR1s, 30th against WR2s, and 32nd against other wide receivers in DVOA as well. In the last five weeks, the Lions have allowed the fourth-most fantasy points per game to wide receivers.
Foster has momentum and a great matchup in week 15. Start him.
Corey Davis @ New York Giants
Davis has been a disappointment in 2018. Many expected Davis to break out in his second season, but a bad offense and an iffy quarterback situation have held him back. Despite this, Davis has been able to produce seven double-digit fantasy games and three games of over 23 fantasy points.
Davis will have a good chance to produce another 20 fantasy point day in week 15. The Giants rank last in DVOA against WR1s. They rank 24th against the pass.
Davis gets a lot of targets and the Giants are not good at covering WR1s. He should have a good day.
Demaryius Thomas @ New York Jets
This is more about matchup than anything. Thomas has not been awful with the Texans. He has not been good either. Regardless, Thomas is the WR2 for the Texans, especially with Coutee nursing a hamstring injury. Thomas has five or more targets in three straight games. While he has not put up big yard numbers, he does have two touchdowns as well.
The Jets rank 23rd in DVOA against WR2s. Over the last five weeks, the Jets have allowed the third-most fantasy points to wide receivers. They have allowed two wide receivers to produce double-digits in each of the last four games. Thomas also produced a 20 point fantasy game against the Jets in week 5 when he was still with the Denver Broncos.
The Jets have been bad against wide receivers over the past several weeks. Thomas has a chance to finish as a top-24 wide receiver. Start him.
Larry Fitzgerald @ Atlanta Falcons
It is unfortunate that this is Larry Fitzgerald’s final season. The Cardinals offense has been inept all season and Fitzgerald has been affected in turn. Fitzgerald is WR33 on the season. While he continues to see a decent amount of targets, his yardage totals are down. In the past two games, Fitzgerald has eight receptions for 103 yards.
Unfortunately, it probably does not get much better for Fitzgerald in week 15. The Falcons have actually been decent against the pass in the past few weeks. They have allowed the fourth-fewest fantasy points to wide receivers in the last five weeks.
With a struggling offense and a surging defense, Fitzgerald is not a good start this week.
Kenny Golladay @ Buffalo Bills
Golladay has enjoyed a breakout season in 2018. He ranks currently as the WR21 on the season. Golladay has produced eight double-digit fantasy games this season. In his last two games, however, he has 55 reception yards. The Detroit Lions offense as a whole has struggled this season, especially lately with the trade of Golden Tate and Marvin Jones’ injury. The lack of receiving options have allowed defenses to key on Golladay.
Unfortunately, Golladay faces another tough test in the Bills in week 15. The Bills rank third in the league in DVOA against the pass. Against WR1s, they rank ninth in DVOA. On the season, the Bills have allowed the fourth-fewest fantasy points to wide receivers. In the past five weeks, they have allowed the third-fewest fantasy points.
In a struggling offense facing a tough defense, Golladay is a sit in week 15.
Kenny Stills @ Minnesota Vikings
Stills’ season started off promising with over 100 yards and two touchdowns in week 1 and another double-digit fantasy day in week 3. Then the wheels fell off. Over the course of the next seven weeks, Stills failed to produce a double-digit fantasy game. In the Dolphins last two games, however, Stills has scored in the double-digits twice, including a 135 yard, one touchdown performance last week.
This likely does not continue in week 15. The Vikings rank eighth in DVOA against the pass. Against WR1s and WR2s they rank third and night respectively. In terms of fantasy, the Vikings have allowed the third-fewest fantasy points to wide receivers on the season. They have allowed the sixth-fewest over the last five weeks. The Vikings have not allowed a 100-yard receiver since week 4.
The Dolphins offense is one of the worst in the league and they face one of the best pass defenses in the league. Stills is a sit.
Chris Herndon vs. Houston Texans
The New York Jets rookie tight end has been a nice surprise in 2018. In a volatile tight end landscape, Herndon has been relatively predictable. He has four double-digit fantasy games on the season and currently ranks as the TE17.
Herndon should have another double-digit fantasy day in week 15. The Texans really have one vulnerability, and that is against tight ends. The Texans rank 27th in DVOA against tight ends. They have allowed the seventh-most fantasy points to tight ends on the season and in the last five weeks. The Texans have also allowed seven double-digit fantasy games to tight ends.
The Texans are not good against tight ends and Herndon has been one fo the Jets most reliable pass catchers. Start him.
Cameron Brate @ Baltimore Ravens
Like the Texans, the Ravens defense has also been vulnerable to tight ends this season. They rank 26th in DVOA against tight ends. The Ravens have allowed the fifth-most fantasy points per game to tight ends over the last five weeks.
Brate has not been great this season. This is largely due to the emergence of OJ Howard. But with Howard on IR, Brate is now the main tight end. He is also one of quarterback Jameis Winston’s favorite red zone and end zone targets. In week 14, Brate only had 12 yards but two touchdowns. Because of this, Brate is a good start against the Ravens.
Kyle Rudolph vs. Miami Dolphins
Rudolph has been a disappointment this season. Taken as a top-eight tight end, Rudolph currently ranks as the TE14. Rudolph started out the season well with double-digit fantasy games in weeks 2 through 4. Since then, he only has one double-digit fantasy game.
However, Rudolph faces a bad Dolphins defense in week 15. The Dolphins have allowed the ninth-most fantasy points to tight ends in the last five weeks. In their last three games, they have allowed three double-digit games to fantasy tight ends, including two games of over 20 fantasy points.
This is a game for Rudolph to get of the schneid. Start him.
Jimmy Graham @ Chicago Bears
At this points, you basically start nobody against the Bears. Against tight ends, the Bears rank third in DVOA. They have allowed the fourth-fewest fantasy points tight ends over the last five weeks.
Graham may be the most disappointing at the tight end position this season. He ranks as TE11 currently, but only has two touchdowns when many thought he would have double-digit touchdowns. This has been his worst season since his rookie season.
Ian Thomas vs. New Orleans Saints
Cam Newton likes to target tight ends. This was evident in week 14 when Ian Thomas was targeted 11 times, catching nine for 77 yards. In the last two games, Thomas has 14 receptions for 123 yards.
However, Thomas faces a tough test in the Saints in week 15. The Saints have struggled against the pass in general, but not against tight ends specifically. The Saints rank seventh in DVOA against tight ends. They have allowed the second-fewest fantasy points to tight ends on the season.
The Saints are vulnerable against a lot of positions. Tight end is not one of them. Sit Thomas.
Evan Engram vs. Tennessee Titans
If you were paying attention, Engram was bound for regression. Of course, no one could have predicted injuries would help derail Engram’s season. Engram has played in only eight games this season. He does have three double-digit fantasy games in those eight, including last week against Washington.
Engram probably will not follow that up with another double-digit game. The Titans have been bad against wide receivers but good against tight ends. They rank fifth in DVOA against tight ends. On the season, the Titans have allowed the fewest fantasy points to tight ends. The Titans have only given up one double-digit fantasy day to tight ends, in week 4 to Zach Ertz. Outside of that week, the Titans have allowed less than 50 yards receiving to every other tight end they have faced.
Engram is an up-and-coming tight end in the league. However, he has had a rough season and will have a rough week 15.
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