Ladies and gents, the moment is here. The culmination of the fantasy season in search of fantasy glory is within our grasp. Whether you had to rattle off several straight wins and backed yourself into the playoffs or you led wire to wire, it matters not. Week 16 Start Sit awaits. Let’s do it.
*Opening lines below are pulled from this DraftKings article.
Houston Texans at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
- HOU -1
- 53 O/U
For Tampa, there are no surprises here. Their run defense has been near or at the top of rush DVOA, surrendering a measly 73.3 yards per game on the ground. They’ve allowed the third-most passing yards per game (276.8), however, and have been absolutely picked apart throughout the season. The Houston pass defense doesn’t fare much better, allowing the fifth-most passing yards per game and the sixth-highest passer rating. As bad as Jameis Winston has been with throwing interceptions, the Texans are tied for the third-fewest across the league with 8. Houston’s rush defense sits at 15th in DVOA, but Tampa Bay has the seventh-lowest expected points contributed by their running game. Both teams are in the top-13 in pace of play so this sets up to be an extremely entertaining fantasy shootout.
Start: Both passing attacks
Sit: Carlos Hyde
YOLO Plays: Kenny Stills, Cameron Brate
Buffalo Bills at New England Patriots
- NE -6.5
- O/U 38.5
To go from the Bucs/Texans game to this just seems wrong and cruel, but alas. Both of these defenses rank in the top four of Football Outsider’s Weighted DVOA on the backs of their ability to control opposing passing games. Both teams are also more vulnerable on the ground, with New England sitting at 7th in rush DVOA. In Week 15, the Pats allowed Joe Mixon to rack up 136 yards on the ground, and the last time these two teams met (week 4), Pappy Gore rumbled his way to a 109 yard effort. As far as injuries, New England’s slot corner Jonathan Jones is out, while Julian Edelman is questionable and beat reporters have been saying “it’s clear” Edelman isn’t near full health.
Start: Devin Singletary
Sit: Everyone else
YOLO Play: Cole Beasley
Note: If you have to roll out John Brown as a FLEX-level play you can do so, just temper your expectations. He’s expected to see a lot of Stephon Gilmore, but Brown did have 5/69 on 11 targets in their first matchup.
Los Angeles Rams at San Francisco 49ers
- SF -6
- O/U 46
The last time these two tangoed in Week 6, the ‘9ers controlled this game 20-7 as the Rams TOTALED 157 offensive yards while Jimmy GQ and the boys posted 331. The O/U for this game has dropped 2 full points since opening, and even 44 feels a tad high. Both of these teams rank in the top ten in FO’s Weighted DVOA, but San Fran will be short-handed with DE Dee Ford and SS Jaquiski Tartt ruled out for the tilt. The big injury news for the Rams is on the other side of things: Gerald Everett returned as a full participant in practice this week and will be active. If you were riding the Tyler Higbee hype train the past few weeks like I’ve been, this is unwelcomed news. After running just 17 routes Week 14, Cooper Kupp bounced back to his typical usage and ran 50 (just 3 fewer than Robert Woods) in Week 15. The key thing to worry about here is Jared Goff and his trouble facing pressure. The 49ers are third in pressure rate (29.3%) while the Rams rank 31st in PFF’s pass blocking grade. In layman’s terms, that ain’t good news.
Start: George Kittle
Sit: Brandin Cooks, Tevin Coleman, Matt Breida
YOLO Play: none
Note: Other than Everett’s return, I’m worried Higbee will be called on as a blocker more often given the Rams awful offensive line. You can still fire him up if you don’t have a more sure-fire option, but as with John Brown above, don’t expect a massive game. Todd Gurley’s snaps and usage have been on a major upswing, but the matchup is far from favorable. Deebo Samuel and Emmanuel Sanders are coinflips in terms of involvement, so don’t expect more than borderline WR2/3 return from either.
Thanks for reading! Don’t forget to join our free Slack community, as we’ll still be active Week 16 and beyond with the transition to #DynastySZN. Also, check back on Saturday for the rest of the start/sits for the week.