In Week 6, I got 65% of my starts/sits correct. That makes four straight weeks with 57% or greater. I feel like I am on the verge of becoming the Doctor Strange of fantasy football with my ability to see into the future.This week’s article will not have not nearly as much fanfare or aplomb. I feel I have patted myself on the back enough over the last few weeks. So, without further ado, here are your Week 7 starts and sits!
Baker Mayfield @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Let us try this again. Mayfield made the start list last week against the Chargers. If not for multiple dropped touchdowns, Mayfield would have had a great day. In fact, Mayfield has the highest percentage of passes dropped in the league. Regardless, the Browns rookie quarterback looked good in the first four games of his career.
Mayfield has the chance for a huge breakout in Week 7. The Bucs allowed the most fantasy points per game to quarterbacks so far this season. They also rank last in DVOA against the pass. Finally, the Bucs defense is last in the league in points per game and passing yards per game allowed. The Bucs pass defense is bad and Mayfield should be able to take advantage.
Joe Flacco vs. New Orleans Saints
Believe it or not, Flacco has been serviceable this year in fantasy football. Flacco has the ninth most passing yards in the league and a 9-to-4 touchdown-to-interception ratio. The Ravens also rank second in the league in pass attempts.
The Saints defense has given up the fifth-most points per game to quarterbacks. They also rank 3oth in DVOA against the pass. On the flip side, the Saints rank first in DVOA against the run and have allowed seventh-fewest fantasy points per game to running backs. The Ravens will likely have to throw to win this game. Especially considering the Saints are first in the NFL in points per game.
Flacco has a decent chance to finish as a QB1 in week 7. Start him.
Mitch Trubisky vs. New England Patriots
Trubisky has thrown for 670 yards, nine touchdowns, and one interception over the Bears’ last two games. It seems that the Bears, after offensive struggles their first three games, have opened up the playbook a bit more over the last two.
The Patriots rank 19th in DVOA against the pass. They have allowed the seventh-most fantasy points to quarterbacks. The Pats have allowed three 30-plus fantasy point games in 2018, including in the last two to Andrew Luck and Patrick Mahomes. Like the Saints, the Patriots have a high scoring offense. They are fourth in the league in points per game. And, like the Ravens, the Bears will likely have to throw to keep up. Trubisky has a good matchup in Week 7.
Josh Rosen vs. Denver Broncos
Rosen has been OK since taking over as starting quarterback for the Cardinals. However, the most yards Rosen has thrown for in his two starts is 240. He also only has two touchdowns and two interceptions. The Cardinals are last in the league in yards per game and second to last in points per game. They also rank last in the league in offensive plays per game.
The Broncos strength on defense is against the pass. They rank eighth in DVOA against the pass versus 29th against the run. The Broncos allow the ninth-fewest fantasy points per game to quarterbacks. They allow the sixth-most points per game to running backs. The Broncos have allowed a running back to go for over 200 yards on the ground in back-to-back games.
This game will likely be a game for the running backs as the Cardinals running defense is also not good. Sit Rosen in week 7.
Alex Smith vs. Dallas Cowboys
Smith’s up and down season continued in Week 6. He has two touchdowns every other week. In between, he has two games of zero touchdowns. Smith currently ranks as QB26 in points per game. Washington’s offense gains the eighth-fewest yards per game and scores the ninth-fewest points per game. It seems that Smith’s 2017 season may have been an anomaly.
Smith faces a very surprisingly stout Cowboys defense. The Cowboys have allowed the fourth-fewest yards per game, eighth-fewest pass yards per game, and second-fewest points per game. They have given up sixth-fewest fantasy points per game to quarterbacks.
This game is likely to be low scoring. The over/under is 41, the lowest in Week 7. In the battle of two good defenses, sit Smith.
Case Keenum @ Arizona Cardinals
Unfortunately, as a Broncos fan, it seems fairly apparent that Keenum is not the Broncos answer at quarterback. Keenum currently ranks as fantasy QB24 in points per game. He is 12th in the league in passing yards but has a 7-to-8 touchdown-to-interception ratio.
The Cardinals defense, like the Broncos, have a good pass defense and poor run defense. They have allowed the eighth-fewest fantasy points per game to quarterbacks and the second-most fantasy points per game to running backs. They have allowed the second-most rush yards per game in the league.
As was stated above and will be stated below, this is a game to start the Broncos and Cardinals running backs.
Royce Freeman/Phillip Lindsay @ Arizona Cardinals
Not a lot of explanation needed here as it was discussed above. The Cardinals run defense is not good. They are coming off of a game where they gave up 144 yards to Latavius Murray. I personally think both Freeman and Lindsay are startable in this game. But this all assumes rational coaching. IF offensive coordinator Bill Musgrave and head coach Vance Joseph run the ball using their two best running backs, Lindsay and Freeman are in for a big game.
You should also be starting David Johnson in this game as a little bonus. But that should have been a given.
Kerryon Johnson @ Miami Dolphins
This is another assumption of rational coaching. On the season, Kerryon has 286 yards on 50 carries for a 5.7 yards per carry average. Fellow running back LeGarrette Blount has 117 yards on 47 carries for a 2.5 yards per carry average. Yet, Blount continues to get carries. In two of the last three games, Blount has received double-digit carries. Fortunately, so has Kerryon. He also has 13 receptions this season. One hopes that head coach Matt Patricia and offensive coordinator Jim Bob Cooter recognize that Kerryon is far more effective, resulting in more touches.
Regardless, Kerryon has a good matchup in Week 7. The Miami Dolphins have given up the fourth-most fantasy points per game to running backs. They have allowed the seventh-most rushing yards and the third-most receiving yards to running backs.
Assuming Kerryon gets the touches, he has the chance to be an RB1 in Week 7.
Peyton Barber vs. Cleveland Browns
This one is a little bit risky. Until Week 6, Barber and the Bucs running game looked awful. Through the Bucs first four games, Barber averaged under three yards per carry. Then, in the Bucs first game after their bye week, Barber gained 82 yards on 13 carries. He also added four receptions for 24 yards and one touchdown. Of course, this was against the Atlanta Falcons, who have an awful defense.
Of course, Barber gets another good matchup in Week 7. The Browns have allowed the fourth-most yards rushing per game and rank 24th in DVOA against the run. They have also allowed the eighth-most fantasy points per game to running backs. This includes three games allowing 130-plus yards to a running back.
Barber is risky, but he could pay off in Week 7.
Alex Collins vs. New Orleans Saints
Collins finally broke through in Week 6 with two touchdowns. However, he has been inefficient in 2018 with 3.6 yards per carry. Unfortunately, Collins faces the best run defense in the Saints in Week 7. The Saints have allowed the fewest rushing yards per game, the fewest fantasy points to running backs per game and rank first overall in DVOA against the run. With the Saints high powered offense and the Ravens willingness to throw, this likely will not be a good game for Collins.
Carlos Hyde @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Hyde has been very inefficient in 2018, averaging 3.4 yards per carry. He has subsisted on volume and touchdowns thus far. That may not last much longer. Head coach Hue Jackson wants to give rookie running back Nick Chubb more carries. Will it happen? Who knows. He said the same thing last week. But his week may be the week that Chubb starts to siphon Hyde’s carries.
Regardless, Hyde is likely not a great start in Week 7. The Buccaneers run defense, while not great, is much better than their pass defense. This is more than likely a Baker Mayfield game. There are better options than Hyde this week.
Marlon Mack vs. Buffalo Bills
After the first two weeks when they were demolished, the Bills defense has looked like the best in the league. Over the last three weeks, the Bills have allowed the sixth-fewest fantasy points to running backs. They rank seventh in DVOA against the run.
Mack actually had a good game in Week 6 against a middling New York Jets defense against the run. He faces a much more stout defense in Week 7. It would serve you well for you to sit him this week.
John Brown vs. New Orleans Saints
See Flacco, Joe. The Saints have a very poor pass defense and a very stout run defense. The Ravens will likely need to throw a lot to stay in the game. The Saints defense ranks 32nd in coverage of opposing teams’ WR1s and WR2s. They have also allowed the most fantasy points per game to wide receivers.
Brown has been a pleasant surprise in 2018. He has 424 yards and three touchdowns on the season to lead the Ravens receivers. Facing the Saints in Week 7, he could be in for another big game.
Chris Godwin vs. Cleveland Browns
Godwin has a touchdown in 4-of-5 games this season. He also tied for the team lead with nine targets last week in quarterback Jameis Winston’s first start. The Browns have allowed the eighth-most yards to wide receivers. This includes four 20-plus fantasy point receiving efforts. The could end up being a relatively high scoring game. The over/under is 49.5. If it is high scoring, there will be a lot of throwing, and Godwin will benefit.
Devin Funchess @ Philadelphia Eagles
The stout Eagles defense has actually shown vulnerabilities against the pass. They have given up the 10th most passing yards per game. They have also given up the sixth-most fantasy points per game to wide receivers, including several 20-plus fantasy point performances.
Funchess has been extremely steady. His minimum yards in a game is 41, his maximum 77. He also has two touchdowns. Funchess is not the flashiest receiver and does not give you those boom games, but he is more than serviceable. He has shown the ability to make spectacular catches though. If Funchess can continue to get red zone targets, he has a legitimate chance to score and have a great fantasy day in Week 7.
Devin Funchess went UP for that one.
📺: FOX pic.twitter.com/MCGgLsCOME
— CBS Sports (@CBSSports) October 14, 2018
Indianapolis Colts Wide Receivers vs. Buffalo Bills
See Mack, Marlon. As good as the Bills have been the last three weeks against the run, they have been even more impressive against the pass. The Bills defense ranks second in DVOA against the pass through six weeks. Over the past three weeks, they have allowed the fewest fantasy points per game to wide receivers. This includes shutting down Corey Davis and Will Fuller and slowing down DeAndre Hopkins and Davante Adams.
Colts wide receiver Chester Rogers has received double-digit targets in three straight weeks with TY Hilton battling hamstring injuries. He likely would see the same if Hilton sits out another week. I just would not expect the same production. TY Hilton is actually practicing this week. Even if he plays, I do not think you can expect a lot from him either. Ryan Grant is iffy for Week 7 with an ankle injury. Zach Pascal is of little consequence. I am just not expecting much out of the Colts receivers this week.
Christian Kirk vs. Denver Broncos
Kirk has seen an uptick in usage since quarterback Josh Rosen took over the helm. He has over 75 yards receiving in three of the past four games. Kirk also added a touchdown.
However, he faces a decent Broncos pass defense in Week 7. The Broncos, as was talked about above, also struggle against the run. Plus the Cardinals run the fewest plays per game in the league. As has been stated almost ad nauseam in this article, this game belongs to the running backs. I would not expect much from Rosen, Kirk, and the Cardinals passing game in Week 7.
Will Fuller @ Jacksonville Jaguars
After starting out hot in his first two games of the season, Fuller has not done much over the past three. He has less than 50 yards receiving in those three games. Fuller has also been out targeted in the three games 27 to 11 by rookie wide receiver Keke Coutee.
Now Fuller faces a Jaguars defense that has arguably the best duo of cornerbacks in the league. The Jaguars did just give up a 101 yard, two touchdown performance to Dallas Cowboys wide receiver Cole Beasley. But Beasley plays out of the slot, which is a weakness in the Jaguars secondary. Fuller does not play out of the slot.
You cannot sit DeAndre Hopkins but you can sit Will Fuller. Do so in Week 7.
CJ Uzomah @ Kansas City Chiefs
With Tyler Eifert out for the season with a gruesome ankle injury and Tyler Kroft out multiple weeks with a broken bone in his foot, Uzomah has all of the tight end snaps to himself. Uzomah has been serviceable the last two weeks with eight receptions for 97 yards. In today’s tight end landscape, that is bordering on TE1 territory.
Uzomah faces a bad Chiefs defense. They have been especially poor against tight ends. The Chiefs rank 27th in DVOA against tight ends in coverage and have allowed the fourth-most fantasy points per game to tight ends this season.
This game is going to be high scoring. The over/under is 58.5. Expect a lot of throwing and several targets to be thrown to Uzomah.
David Njoku @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Njoku should probably be a weekly start at this point. Since quarterback Baker Mayfield took over, Njoku has 30 total targets and over 50 yards in the past three games. He also added a touchdown last week. Njoku has been Mayfield’s most reliable pass catcher with others dropping the ball.
As has been discussed multiple times over the season, the Buccaneers defense is bad. Their pass defense is especially bad. And their coverage of tight ends is even worse. The Bucs rank 29th in the league in DVOA in coverage of tight ends. They have allowed the most points per game to tight ends in the league, allowing 20 or more fantasy point games three times.
This is a juicy matchup for Njoku. He may finish as TE1 for week 7.
Chris Herndon vs. Minnesota Vikings
This one is a little risky. Herndon flashed some life last week against the Cols with 56 yards and a touchdown. With wide receiver Quincy Enunwa out multiple weeks with a sprained ankle, Herndon has a chance to step up into a more important role for the Jets.
Herndon has a good matchup to back up his Week 6 performance. The Vikings are dead last in the league in DVOA against tight ends in coverage. They have allowed the sixth-most receptions, fourth-most yards, and sixth-most fantasy points per game to opposing tight ends.
The Vikings have a decent run defense and they have a great passing offense. The Jets will likely need to throw to stay in this game. Herndon is a nice dart throw if you are desperate at tight end in Week 7.
Greg Olsen @ Philadelphia Eagles
This one is pretty easy. Olsen is old and broken. The Eagles are good against opposing tight ends. The Eagles rank second in DVOA in coverage of tight ends and have allowed the second-fewest fantasy points per game to tight ends. Sit Olsen in week 7.
Fantasy football does not need to be hard.
Trey Burton vs. New England Patriots
The tight end landscape has been hard to gauge in 2018. Eric Ebron is the TE2. Jared Cook is the TE4. Trey Burton is the TE12 despite only 15 receptions on 23 targets. This means he is a TE1 in 12 team leagues. Burton just does not get a lot of targets. He has needed touchdowns to be relevant thus far as he has less than 200 yards receiving.
The Patriots have been good against tight ends. They rank seventh against tight ends in DVOA. Before the last two weeks, the Patriots has only allowed 118 yards and one touchdown in four games.
Like I said, predicting tight ends has been weird this season.
OJ Howard vs. Cleveland Browns
A lot of fantasy players probably do not have a choice when it comes to starting or sitting Howard. For those that do, this is a good week to sit him. The Browns rank third in DVOA against tight ends. Outside of one week against Jared Cook, the Browns have held all opposing tight ends to under double-digit fantasy points.
Howard is one of the better young tight ends in the league. But with a high-powered offense, the Bucs have better matchups to exploit against the Browns. Howard may have a down week in Week 7.
Thank you again for following me and allowing me to help you. I hope this article will help you make lineup decisions and win your leagues.
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