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Weekly Impressions from Week 1

Welcome to the NFL season! We are back in full swing (even in a pandemic). It felt great to watch some NFL football after a to-date dreadful 2020. Not everybody can watch every game, so TFA wants to give you some instant fantasy analysis and weekly impressions from every game. This is hard-hitting, quick analysis (usually only about 1-2 sentences per match-up) to help you make waiver decisions, find trade targets, and digest each week’s action.

Houston Texans v. Kansas City Chiefs

Will Fuller got ten targets (31.25% target share), caught 8, and honestly didn’t have that great of a game from an NFL standpoint. Yet, he still managed to accumulate 112 yards. Watson tends to lock-in to his No. 1 WR, and it’s clear that he’s locking into Fuller.

New York Jets v. Buffalo Bills

In a game dominated by the Jets, Josh Allen still threw 46 times, including 14 rushing attempts. Buffalo struggled to convert some red zone attempts, as eight of eleven Buffalo possessions ended in the red zone, turning into a mere three touchdowns. If they sort this out, this Buffalo offense, and Josh Allen specifically, could really soar.

Seattle Seahawks v. Atlanta Falcons

Adjusted for gamescript, Seattle was the most pass-heavy team of Week 1. The result: Russ cooked. Wilson had a damn-near perfect game and will be a tier-1 QB if Seattle continues this trend.

Philadelphia Eagles v. Washington Football Team

The Eagles base set is 12 personnel (Ertz played 85% of snaps, Goedert played 79%). Meanwhile, the WR with the highest snap percentage was Jalen Reagor (59%). Even in “5-wide”, the Eagles had two-TEs on the field. Goedert is the Eagles #1 “WR” (lead team with 9 targets).

Cleveland Browns v. Baltimore Ravens

Let’s not overreact to Beckham’s down day; he still received a 26% target share and played 75% of the snaps. Baltimore is a very good defense.

Miami Dolphins v. New England Patriots

Cam Newton ran the ball 15 times, seven of which were a designed run, six were run options, one was a broken play,and one was a kneel down at the end of the game. The result? 75 rushing yards and two touchdowns. Josh McDaniels has completely redesigned the Patriot’s offense around Cam’s unique skill set at QB.

Green Bay Packers v. Minnesota Vikings

Lazard and MVS both had great games, but did so in limited opportunity (10 total touches between the two). Meanwhile, Davante Adams dominated with 17 targets. If Adams is going to have a 40% target share, there isn’t room in this offense for a second fantasy-startable WR, especially if MVS and Lazard are splitting targets.

Indianapolis Colts v. Jacksonville Jaguars

Parris Campbell played the most snaps of any Indy play-maker (RB/WR/TE). He also co-led the team in targets. His play-making ability combined with Rivers reluctance to chuck it deep means he has a nice floor moving forward. However, is this offense any good? My weekly impressions of the Colts suggest that they are not.

Chicago Bears v. Detroit Lions

Ignore the carry numbers, this is a strict 3-way time share between Peterson, Swift, and Johnson (Swift 44%, Peterson 31%, Johnson 26%). I am not sure any Lions RB will be fantasy relevant in 2020 if all three stay healthy.

Las Vegas Raiders v. Carolina Panthers

Josh Jacobs has leveled up; he was second on the team in targets and played 78% of snaps. Don’t expect three touchdowns every week, but expect this usage.

Los Angeles Chargers v. Cincinnati Bengals

Joshus Kelley got both goal-line carries for the Chargers for a total of 12 carries (compared to 2 for Justin Jackson). Kelley has filled the Melvin Gordon role and could be a top 24-30 RB depending on whether LAC’s offense is average.

Arizona Cardinals v. San Francisco 49ers

Mostert dominated snaps and opportunities and even led the team in targets (60% snap counts, 15 carries, 5 targets). This is unusual usage for a 49ers backfield member, leading me to believe that Tevin Coleman was not fully healthy, despite playing. I wouldn’t rely on this usage for Mostert moving forward.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers v. New Orleans Saints

Latavius Murray annoyingly got a lot of carries (15 carries to Kamara’s 12). It felt like the Saints were using Kamara as a 3rd down back, but Kamara managed to play 77% of the snaps. Try not to overreact to Murray’s usage in this game – the Saints were pretty much always in control.

Dallas Cowboys v. Los Angeles Rams

Cam Akers got 14 carries, but Malcolm Brown is the clear lead back. Akers can’t be started unless Brown is hurt.

Pittsburgh Steelers v. New York Giants

JuJu caught the touchdowns, but Dionte Johnson substantially out-targeted JuJu (10 to 6 targets). Johnson’s output is a bit disappointing, but I would send a few trade offers for Johnson to see if anyone is selling low.

Tennessee Titans v. Denver Broncos

The Titans don’t have a third-down back. Instead, they used Jonnu Smith in that manner, which resulted in 73% snaps, ran a route on 63% of drop backs, and seven targets. Tennessee split targets pretty evenly between Corey Davis, A.J. Brown, Adam Humphries, and Jonnu Smith. That’s good news for Jonnu.

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