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Week 13 Snap Counts and Opportunities: RBs

derrius guice week 13 snap counts

Running backs can’t score fantasy points if they aren’t on the field, so this weekly article will provide impressions by analyzing snap counts, percentages, and touches. Here we go with the Week 13 snap counts and opportunities for running backs.

Fantasy football is all about opportunity, and the NFL players who have higher snap counts have a higher probability of scoring more fantasy points. I provide fantasy football snap counts here with some context and impressions to help you make fantasy transactions and gain an edge on your competition. Looking at context will involve analyzing carries and targets and whether running backs were able to convert opportunity to yards gained. Be sure to also read our other redraft content and listen to the TFA podcast to get all the info you need!

After a week on the beach, I am back to help you understand the RB landscape. Since it’s fantasy playoff time, I going to get straight to the point. If you have any questions or want a follow-up, reach out to me on Twitter (@NateHenryFF)!

Fantasy Football Snap Counts and Reactions

Arizona Snaps  +/- Carries Targets Total Yards
RB1 David Johnson 23% 10% 4 2 24
RB2 Chase Edmonds 0% 0% 0 0 0
RB3 Kenyon Drake 80% -8% 13 5 51

Despite being active, Chase Edmonds didn’t play, and David Johnson barely played. It’s completely Kenyon Drake’s backfield for the rest of the season. Johnson is dropable in redraft.

Atlanta Snaps  +/- Carries Targets Total Yards
RB1 Devonta Freeman 67% 67% 17 5 64
RB2 Brian Hill 26% 33% 4 3 37

Devonta Freeman returned to action and his typical workload. Brian Hill essentially inherited the “Ito Smith Role”.

Baltimore Snaps  +/- Carries Targets Total Yards
RB1 Mark Ingram 55% 24% 15 2 62
RB2 Gus Edwards 38% -4% 6 1 22
RB3 Justice Hill 6% -17% 1 0 3

Pretty typical snap counts and shared workload for Baltimore. It is notable that Justice Hill barely played in a tight game against SF. Don’t worry too much about Ingram’s efficiency, as SF is a very good run defense, and the weather was poor.

Buffalo Snaps  +/- Carries Targets Total Yards
RB1 Frank Gore 22% -8% 9 1 25
RB2 Devin Singletary 78% 8% 14 4 101

Singletary has seen increased snap counts for three straight weeks, as he has completely taken control of this backfield. Gore is fantasy irrelevant now, and Singletary looks like a great option for the fantasy playoffs. We love his role in the passing game especially. The only thing capping his upside is Josh Allen’s usage around the goal-line. We shall see if the Bills try to protect their franchise QB more as they are clearly a playoff team.

Carolina Snaps  +/- Carries Targets Total Yards
RB1 Christian McCaffery 99% -1% 14 13 102

A “down” week for McCaffery as he *only* managed to gain 102 yards. Ho hum…

Chicago Snaps  +/- Carries Targets Total Yards
RB1 David Montgomery 62% -2% 16 2 87
RB2 Tarik Cohen 55% 2% 3 4 35

Montgomery salvaged his day with a late receiving score against the woeful Lions defense on an otherwise inefficient day. The good news is that Cohen and Montgomery are playing together quite a bit more, which means an increase in routes run for Montgomery. That should give you a bit more confidence plugging in Montgomery into you starting lineup in the fantasy playoffs.

Cincinnati Snaps  +/- Carries Targets Total Yards
RB1 Joe Mixon 79% 11% 19 4 70
RB2 Giovani Bernard 20% -17% 1 2 12

Mixon saw an increase in efficiency with Andy Dalton’s return and even saw a season high in routes run. Cincinnati is going to give Mixon more opportunity as the season comes to a close.

Cleveland Snaps  +/- Carries Targets Total Yards
RB1 Nick Chubb 59% 2% 16 2 79
RB2 Kareem Hunt 65% 9% 7 5 65

This is the first week that we saw Kareem Hunt play more snaps than Nick Chubb. This was always the fear when drafting Chubb, especially since Chubb’s routes run continue to decrease with Hunt getting more and more involved. This offense isn’t strong enough to sustain two running backs, so you are essentially flipping a coin by starting either in the fantasy playoffs. Still, you have to start Chubb if you have him, but I’d be nervous. Hold Hunt if you have him; these trends might indicate that Hunt could win you a fantasy playoff game in weeks 15 or 16.

Dallas Snaps  +/- Carries Targets Total Yards
RB1 Ezekiel Elliott 88% 1% 12 10 137
RB2 Tony Pollard 14% -5% 3 0 7

Season high in targets for Elliot. The Bills passing offense is legit, so it’s unsurprising that Dak was forced to check the ball down a lot. I doubt this is a trend.

Denver Snaps  +/- Carries Targets Total Yards
RB1 Phillip Lindsay 44% -11% 17 3 62
RB2 Royce Freeman 56% 1% 5 4 24

Denver has apparently given up on expanding Lindsay’s snap counts after trying it for two weeks. The bigger news is that Drew Lock involved the two running backs in the passing game far more than Brandon Allen did. One game is far too small of a sample to provide actionable advice, but an increased involvement in the passing game would make Lindsay more palatable.

Detroit Snaps  +/- Carries Targets Total Yards
RB1 Ty Johnson 33% 18% 3 3 29
RB2 JD McKissic 22% -28% 2 3 24
RB3 Bo Scarborough 47% 47% 21 0 83

Scarborough is still the only RB worth a damn in this godforsaken backfield. Even so, I don’t believe he has a single target on the year, so temper expectations. Even worse, the Lions offense isn’t likely to succeed often with a 3rd string QB running things. Thus, 8.3 fantasy points might be Scarborough’s ceiling.

Green Bay Snaps  +/- Carries Targets Total Yards
RB1 Aaron Jones 58% 6% 11 6 31
RB2 Jamaal Williams 42% -6% 10 4 67

While Jones played a bit more snaps than usual, he did nothing with them. For 4 out of the last 5 weeks, Williams has been the better back, especially in the passing game. Jones certainly won you some weeks, but he probably lost you a couple as well recently. Jones did have a TD called back by penalty, so he remains the preferred goal-line back. Keep starting him despite the recent inefficiencies. Williams can and should be started in many leagues as well.

Houston Snaps  +/- Carries Targets Total Yards
RB1 Duke Johnson 68% 18% 9 6 92
RB2 Carlos Hyde 38% -12% 10 1 23

Houston had a very specific game plan to beat NE, and it worked. Duke was a major part of this game plan. These snap counts were game plan, not game script, related. Still, considering this game plan worked against the league’s best defense, maybe Bill O’Brien will take notice and use Duke more. Hopefully you weren’t seriously considering Carlos Hyde in this tough match-up, so it likely didn’t hurt you.

Indianapolis Snaps  +/- Carries Targets Total Yards
RB1 Jordan Wilkins 44% 44% 11 3 56
RB2 Nyheim Hines 43% 10% 4 2 40
RB3 Jonathan Williams 22% -45% 8 1 25

With Wilkins healthy, the depth chart, not the hot hand, dictated snap counts and opportunities, which meant Wilkins leapfrogged Williams. This is all likely irrelevant as Marlon Mack projects to play in Week 14. No reason to rush out and add Wilkins unless Mack misses time again.

Jacksonville Snaps  +/- Carries Targets Total Yards
RB1 Leonard Fournette 89% -6% 14 11 91
RB2 Ryquell Armstead 11% 6% 0 1 0

Only Christian McCaffery has more targets than Leonard Fournette among running backs over the last few weeks.

Kansas City Snaps  +/- Carries Targets Total Yards
RB1 Darwin Thompson 36% 36% 11 0 44
RB2 LeSean McCoy 36% -2% 5 3 30
RB3 Darrel Williams 27% -16% 6 2 16

Darrel Williams injured his hamstring and looks to be out for some time. Damien Williams’ status is also still up in the air. That makes Darwin Thompson a worthwhile add for the fantasy playoffs.

LA Chargers Snaps  +/- Carries Targets Total Yards
RB1 Austin Ekeler 53% -5% 9 5 67
RB2 Melvin Gordon 65% 13% 20 3 110

Nothing new here, both running backs continue to be useful.

LA Rams Snaps  +/- Carries Targets Total Yards
RB1 Todd Gurley 68% -28% 19 1 115
RB2 Malcolm Brown 23% 19% 6 0 30
RB3 Darrell Henderson 9% 9% 4 0 17

Gurley was fantastic in this one, albeit against a very poor offense. His snap counts were down because the Rams were so far ahead in the second half. The previous week, when trailing the entire game, Gurley played 96% of the snaps and saw far more targets. So, in games that matter, Gurley is on the field and getting targeted. The Rams remaining games should matter as LA is a fringe playoff team at the moment. Gurley’s snaps for the rest of the year should be fine. He’s likely a low-end RB1/high-end RB2 ROS.

Miami Snaps  +/- Carries Targets Total Yards
RB1 Kalen Ballage 15% -22% 3 0 1
RB2 Patrick Laird 60% 60% 10 5 48

With Ballage on IR, Laird appears to be the back who will get the opportunity. The Dolphins offense has been much better as of late, making him a worthwhile add in deep leagues. He should still be ignored in shallow leagues because Miami is scoring touchdowns almost exclusively through the air (hello DeVante Parker!)

Minnesota Snaps  +/- Carries Targets Total Yards
RB1 Dalvin Cook 44% -37% 9 4 64
RB2 Alexander Mattison 49% 43% 4 5 73

Cook hurt his shoulder and missed most of the second half. He appears to be okay to play in Week 14 (fingers crossed), but this scare should teach you the importance of handcuffing at this point in the season.

New England Snaps  +/- Carries Targets Total Yards
RB1 Sony Michel 17% -34% 10 0 45
RB2 James White 78% 47% 14 11 177
RB3 Rex Burkhead 5% -16% 3 0 15

Down for most of the game, Sony Michel was useless, whereas James White was dominant, especially through the air. There is nothing new here. Just understand that NE has to play a weak team for Michel to be useful. Play White against teams NE will have to actually compete against. Dan Orlovsky had a fantastic video showing that Tom Brady does not trust any of his WRs other than Edelman, which makes White the second passing option in this offense.

New Orleans Snaps  +/- Carries Targets Total Yards
RB1 Alvin Kamara 82% 15% 11 8 84
RB2 Latavius Murray 26% -13% 4 0 2

Nothing new here. Atlanta’s defense has been better as of late, so Murray wasn’t much use.

NY Giants Snaps  +/- Carries Targets Total Yards
RB1 Saquon Barkley 96% -1% 19 7 115

Eli Manning is set to play in Week 14 with Daniel Jones out, which bodes well for Saquon’s pass catching stats.

NY Jets Snaps  +/- Carries Targets Total Yards
RB1 Le’Veon Bell 85% 28% 10 5 67
RB2 Bilal Powell 15% -9% 4 2 18

Hopefully by now, you, like me, have given up on anyone connected to Adam Gase. You can use Bell in a pinch this week, but he won’t be any use in Week 15 or 16 (NYJ plays Baltimore and Pittsburgh).

Oakland Snaps  +/- Carries Targets Total Yards
RB1 Josh Jacobs 57% 17% 17 0 104
RB2 Jalen Richard 20% -20% 1 2 8
RB3 DeAndre Washington 25% 4% 2 3 49

Jacobs continues to run strong, and his snap counts remain stagnant in the 55-65% range.

Philadelphia Snaps  +/- Carries Targets Total Yards
RB1 Miles Sanders 87% 2% 17 5 105
RB2 Jordan Howard 0% 0% 0 0 0
RB3 Jay Ajayi 13% 2% 2 0 9

Miles Sanders is a great option whenever Howard is out, which appears to be at least one more week. Ajayi isn’t cutting into his workload at all.

Pittsburgh Snaps  +/- Carries Targets Total Yards
RB1 Jaylen Samuel 55% 26% 7 2 54
RB2 Trey Edmunds 5% -12% 0 0 0
RB3 Benny Snell 37% -12% 16 1 67

Benny Snell has taken over backfield touches now that he’s healthy. Samuels continues to get a lot of playing time because he is still the preferred pass catcher. James Conner looks to be out one more week, so I’d consider starting Snell, and only Snell, from this backfield.

Seattle Snaps  +/- Carries Targets Total Yards
RB1 Chris Carson 52% 1% 23 2 109
RB2 Rashaad Penny 47% -2% 15 5 107

It’s a dreaded split backfield in Seattle after Carson dominated snap counts all year. Still, Carson is getting plenty of opportunity because Seattle loves to run the ball. Both Penny and Carson can now be started with confidence, but Carson’s upside is capped by Penny’s involvement. It’s notable that Carson got 23 carries even after missing a chuck of the game being checked out for a concussion. I’m not worried about Carson.

San Francisco Snaps  +/- Carries Targets Total Yards
RB1 Matt Breida 0% 0% 0 0 0
RB2 Tevin Coleman 18% -42% 5 1 15
RB3 Raheem Mostert 74% 45% 19 2 154

Mostert had a hot hand, and Shanahan rewarded him with big time snap counts and touches, especially for this backfield that always involves three RBs. If Breida is out one more week, grab Mostert and start him. If he plays, that would complicate matters.

Tampa Bay Snaps  +/- Carries Targets Total Yards
RB1 Peyton Barber 39% 16% 17 0 44
RB2 Ronald Jones 28% -22% 6 0 8
RB3 Dare Ogunbowale 30% 10% 1 2 12

Ronald Jones apparently missed one blitz pickup and was yanked from the game. You cannot start a player who is one mistake away from being completely removed from the game. I don’t think you can start anyone from TB in the fantasy playoffs.

Tennessee Snaps  +/- Carries Targets Total Yards
RB1 Derrick Henry 75% 0% 26 3 166
RB2 Dion Lewis 18% 3% 0 1 9

Derrick Henry is straight up dominant. Tannehill’s efficiency is doing wonders on the running game’s efficiency.

Washington Snaps  +/- Carries Targets Total Yards
RB1 Adrian Peterson 36% 2% 13 1 99
RB2 Derrius Guice 30% -11% 10 3 137
RB3 Chris Thompson 36% 36% 3 2 29

Guice is exciting, but he played the fewest snaps in this backfield. Because of this workload split, I can’t recommend starting him.

Biggest Takeaways

  • Kenyon Drake and Devin Singletary both control their respective backfields and will for the remainder of the year.
  • Kareem Hunt’s involvement in the Cleveland offense increases every week, which does not bode well for Nick Chubb. Still, you have to start Chubb.
  • Darwin Thompson is worth a pickup after Darrell Williams’s injury.
  • Le’Veon Bell is a good player playing for an awful coach. A juicy matchup means he can be started once more, but do not expect any production in Weeks 15-16.
  • Seattle is officially a split backfield, but with enough rushing work to sustain both Carson and Penny.
  • Ronald Jones is apparently only one mistake away from being taken off the field, and thus, cannot be trusted in the fantasy playoffs
  • Derrius Guice is dynamic, but not seeing the field enough to justify a spot in your starting lineup.

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